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The last week of January delivered a mixed bag for the markets—the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, a fresh GDP print showed slower-than-expected growth, but most notably AI upstart DeepSeek sent shockwaves through the tech market with its launch. In this episode, Martha Coacher, Dianne Crocker, and Manus Clancy dig into the AI disruptor’s Sputnik moment and its potential impact on data centers, power demand, and the broader market. The team also takes stock of CRE’s cautiously bullish outlook, from investors itching to get back in the game to the latest LightBox CRE 2025 Predictions Report, where industry veterans are throwing around phrases like if not a banner year, a better year. Will 2025 deliver on the expected CRE transition? Plus, AT&T’s sale leaseback, and sales activity trends in Chicago office, and mixed-use properties.

00:17 Fed's Decision and Market Reactions

01:01 AI Disruptor DeepSeek Shakes the Market

02:01 Impact on Data Centers and Tech Stocks

13:47 Commercial Real Estate Predictions for 2025

19:51 Retail Sector Developments

25:01 Office Market Trends in Chicago

31:48 Sale-Leaseback Deals and Corporate Finance

33:19 Mentorship Program and Upcoming Events

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Ryan Severino, chief economist at BGO and adjunct professor at Columbia, never holds back and this week he joined the LightBox team to break down what lies ahead in 2025. The conversation centered on key questions: Has the market soured on the Fed? What can the office market learn from retail? And what predictions does he have for the year ahead as Trump policies start to take effect? From the cautious sentiment around the increase in Treasury yields to insights on how AI is reshaping CRE asset management and portfolio strategy, Ryan gives the team his unvarnished analysis. It’s a must-listen for anyone gaming out the landscape of commercial real estate for 2025.

02:23 Market Enthusiasm and Fed Policies

04:14 Has the Market Soured on the Fed?

11:20 Trump 2.0 Policy Impacts on CRE

21:06 The Concept of Third Space in CRE

24:26 Retail Market Misconceptions

28:14 Office Market Evolution

30:38 AI's Role in Commercial Real Estate

35:39 2025 Predictions and Economic Outlook

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Fresh economic data brought a much-needed sigh of relief this week, as Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker tackled everything from the “Goldilocks prints” to the bullish outlook among lenders eager to return to dealmaking. Manus coined a new term, “office collateral damage,” comparing the current state of office space to the retail apocalypse of years past. The team also weighed in on the economic fallout from the Southern California wildfires and examined the rise of buy-to-convert projects—turning underperforming offices into residential properties. Amid it all, an unprecedented wave of optimism is breaking through, leaving everyone wondering just how far it can carry the market.

Have question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.

00:15 Markets Exhale on Inflation Data

02:52 Retail Roundup and Economic Indicators

05:50 Optimism in the Lending Market

09:10 Retail Trends and Store Closures

14:59 Bank Earnings and Confidence in Lending

18:08 Impact of LA Wildfires

20:56 Office “Collateral Damage” Transactions and Multifamily Markets

24:12 Market Trends and “Price Clustering”

27:06 Future of Drone Deliveries in Retail

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In a week that was chock full of economic data for investors to digest, there was no lack of market news for Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker to consider as a bond rout took hold, and wildfires continued to burn out of control in the Los Angeles area leaving a path of devastation. With the holidays firmly in the rear-view mirror, the team takes a spin through the spirit of the U.S. economy’s past, present, and future, starting with December’s 40-basis point rise in 10-year Treasury yields, to current concerns about inflationary pressure. But there is more to come in 2025, so questions remain on how the new administration’s proposed tariffs and spending cuts could shape interest rates and CRE. Professor Manus walks through how to read the latest news on CMBS data and Dianne takes us through the LightBox CRE Activity Index. The Index dropped to 56.8 in December—a steeper-than-average 23-point decline that flies in the face of fresh optimism in the CRE market, offering a hopeful perspective on the opportunities and resilience driving the industry forward.

Have question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.

01:57 Economic Overview and Recent Events

04:48 Interest Rates and Inflation Concerns

09:34 Market Sentiment and CRE Enthusiasm

11:26 Lightbox CRE Activity Index Analysis

18:30 Who's Bullish on Office?

21:13 Manus Does a CMBS Dive

25:07 Leasing Trends and Notable Deals

36:08 Multifamily Market Activity and Insights

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In the first episode of 2025, guest host Tina Lichens, General Manager of LightBox Capital Markets joins Manus Clancy and Dianne Crocker to kick off the new year with an encouraging look back at the final few weeks of 2024 and a forward-looking discussion of expectations for the New Year. Tina’s observation of an unexpected surge in property listings on the LightBox RCM® platform during the final weeks of 2024 dovetails with bullish sentiments from industry leaders as we head into 2025. Dianne shared an early look at responses from the LightBox Capital Markets Advisory Council’s Q4 survey results. Council members’ optimism is fueled in part by the dawn of a new chapter for the office sector but tempered by the year-end high in the 10-year Treasury yield and the likelihood of interest rates staying higher for longer. Listen as Tina, Manus, and Dianne share their predictions for interest rates, dealmaking, and lending for 2025, as well as their plans for industry conferences in early 2025, including Tina’s upcoming panel on innovative applications of AI in CRE. Listen to the end for a lighthearted recap of Manus’ epic food fail and a New Year’s resolution inspired by an unlikely culinary combination. Don’t miss this blend of market insights and fun to start the year off right!

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01:00 Market Review: A Bumpy December Ends with Elevated 10-Year Treasury Yield

05:15 A Surprise on the Upside for Late December

07:00 Anecdotes from the Field for 2025 Expectations

13:40 Interest Rate Predictions: Higher for Longer

21:13 Transaction Velocity: Up by Double Digits YOY in 2025 As Floodgates Open

25:45 The “Noise” on Distress and What It’s Important

29:32 Early 2025 Conferences

32:38 New Year's Resolutions

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This week, Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker take a look back at CRE’s hits and misses in 2024 with a review of "Successes, Setbacks, and Surprises." The discussion covers 2024 as a tale of two halves, from the successes—like banks resuming lending, impressive CMBS volumes, and double-digit growth in the LightBox CRE Activity Index—to the setbacks, including the inconsistent path of the 10-year Treasury, persistent “hotter for longer” economic data, and rising distress in office and multifamily sectors. The team also highlights the year’s surprises, such as transaction activity holding steady despite market challenges and fewer bank failures than expected. Tune in for insights on how CRE remained deeply connected to economic indicators, the persistent deficit, and what it all might mean heading into 2025.

Have question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.

07:11 Successes of 2024: Interest Rate Cuts and Lending Market Recovery

12:54 The Adaptive Reuse Glow-Up and Redevelopment Trends

18:04 Setbacks of 2024: Inflation Concerns, Office Distress, and Multifamily Challenges

31:04 Surprises of 2024: Labor Market Plot Twists, Consumer Resilience, and Economic Wins

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This week, Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker unpack the mixed signals from the latest economic data including November’s wholesale inflation report, which came in hotter than expected, alongside an expected uptick in consumer inflation and a notable jump in weekly jobless claims. All this, while Wall Street has come off a mixed session with some sky-high valuations. Is the Fed getting bullied by the market to proceed with the December rate cut? And Dianne provides the detail behind the LightBox CRE Activity Index’s second consecutive monthly decline, but strong YoY growth. With movement on inflation, interest rates, and CRE transactions, this episode dives into the challenge of squaring both sides of the market – the CRE side and the broader investor market. And if you’re curious about what leaps of faith and lords a-leaping have to do with the market, you’ll have to listen to the end.

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05:40 Is the Fed feeling the heat? A closer look at the pressure to cut rates.
10:55 November CRE Activity Index reveals what’s bubbling in deal-making.
17:58 Retail’s holiday hustle: How trends are shaping this shopping season.
20:39 Office-to-residential conversions: Successes, challenges, and lessons learned.
30:50 DC’s vacancy dilemma with expiring government leases.
35:35 Holiday market predictions featuring leasing trends, forecasts, and festive insights.

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This week, the LightBox team welcomes Spencer Levy, global client strategist and senior economic advisor for CBRE, for a compelling conversation about the seismic shifts in commercial real estate since the pre-COVID era. Levy compares the “Yellow Brick Road” era of low interest rates, strong fundamentals, and geopolitical stability before 2020 with today’s more turbulent landscape, shaped by inflation, high interest rates, and global uncertainty. He recommends practitioners follow the mega-trends reshaping the CRE industry: the reshoring of manufacturing, and the transition from CBDs (central business districts) to live-work-play neighborhoods. The discussion also delves into how adaptive reuse offers a potential lifeline for office assets in a world where Class B buildings face mounting challenges. While cracks are appearing in multifamily and industrial fundamentals, Levy surprises the team by spotlighting renewed strength in top-tier office markets. This episode is chock full of great takeaways as well as some fun detours that include Levy's passions for cooking and music.

Have questions for the podcast team? Reach out to podcast@lightboxre.com.

00:56 Yellow Brick Road vs the Opposite

04:11 Interest Rates will Stay Higher for Longer

06:13 Megatrends Shaping Commercial Real Estate

10:26 Asset Conversions, Rezoning and the Case for Patience

16:40 Spencer’s Recommendations: Build Today and Follow the Megatrends

22:52 Open Air Retail Opportunities Driven by Consumer Sentiment

27:07 Spencer Levy's Personal Touch: Music and Brisket

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