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The last week of January delivered a mixed bag for the markets—the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, a fresh GDP print showed slower-than-expected growth, but most notably AI upstart DeepSeek sent shockwaves through the tech market with its launch. In this episode, Martha Coacher, Dianne Crocker, and Manus Clancy dig into the AI disruptor’s Sputnik moment and its potential impact on data centers, power demand, and the broader market. The team also takes stock of CRE’s cautiously bullish outlook, from investors itching to get back in the game to the latest LightBox CRE 2025 Predictions Report, where industry veterans are throwing around phrases like if not a banner year, a better year. Will 2025 deliver on the expected CRE transition? Plus, AT&T’s sale leaseback, and sales activity trends in Chicago office, and mixed-use properties.

00:17 Fed's Decision and Market Reactions

01:01 AI Disruptor DeepSeek Shakes the Market

02:01 Impact on Data Centers and Tech Stocks

13:47 Commercial Real Estate Predictions for 2025

19:51 Retail Sector Developments

25:01 Office Market Trends in Chicago

31:48 Sale-Leaseback Deals and Corporate Finance

33:19 Mentorship Program and Upcoming Events

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Ryan Severino, chief economist at BGO and adjunct professor at Columbia, never holds back and this week he joined the LightBox team to break down what lies ahead in 2025. The conversation centered on key questions: Has the market soured on the Fed? What can the office market learn from retail? And what predictions does he have for the year ahead as Trump policies start to take effect? From the cautious sentiment around the increase in Treasury yields to insights on how AI is reshaping CRE asset management and portfolio strategy, Ryan gives the team his unvarnished analysis. It’s a must-listen for anyone gaming out the landscape of commercial real estate for 2025.

02:23 Market Enthusiasm and Fed Policies

04:14 Has the Market Soured on the Fed?

11:20 Trump 2.0 Policy Impacts on CRE

21:06 The Concept of Third Space in CRE

24:26 Retail Market Misconceptions

28:14 Office Market Evolution

30:38 AI's Role in Commercial Real Estate

35:39 2025 Predictions and Economic Outlook

Have question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.

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Fresh economic data brought a much-needed sigh of relief this week, as Martha Coacher, Manus Clancy, and Dianne Crocker tackled everything from the “Goldilocks prints” to the bullish outlook among lenders eager to return to dealmaking. Manus coined a new term, “office collateral damage,” comparing the current state of office space to the retail apocalypse of years past. The team also weighed in on the economic fallout from the Southern California wildfires and examined the rise of buy-to-convert projects—turning underperforming offices into residential properties. Amid it all, an unprecedented wave of optimism is breaking through, leaving everyone wondering just how far it can carry the market.

Have question for the pod team? Send them to podcast@lightboxre.com.

00:15 Markets Exhale on Inflation Data

02:52 Retail Roundup and Economic Indicators

05:50 Optimism in the Lending Market

09:10 Retail Trends and Store Closures

14:59 Bank Earnings and Confidence in Lending

18:08 Impact of LA Wildfires

20:56 Office “Collateral Damage” Transactions and Multifamily Markets

24:12 Market Trends and “Price Clustering”

27:06 Future of Drone Deliveries in Retail

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