On 18th March 2024, Afghanistan's remote and southeastern Paktika province found itself subject to aerial bombardment. The airstrikes, carried out in the early hours of the morning, were conducted by Pakistani military planes from across the Durand Line. A statement soon released by Islamabad confirmed the airstrikes, claiming these were in response to a recent a deadly TTP attack in Mir Ali, South Waziristan, that had killed scored of Pakistani troops. The target of the airstrikes was reported to be Abdullah Shah: a commander in the TTP's Hafiz Gul Bahadur faction, rumoured to be hiding in Afghanistan.

The airstrikes triggered a barrage of artillery fire from the Afghanistan side in response, whilst locals in Paktika Birmal said that the airstrikes had only killed civilians. Videos soon circulated on social media purportedly showing Abdullah Shah alive and in South Waziristan.

In this episode, Sangar Paykhar hosts Ali Mustafa to discuss what the unexpected flare-up between the two neighbours means for their complex and difficult relationship, and what the attack reveals about the fragility of Pakistan's own domestic politics in the aftermath of a controversial election marred by allegations of fraud and rigging.

Ali Mustafa is a Pakistani-Canadian journalist and a graduate from Columbia University's School of Journalism. He has produced content for Canadian Broadcasting’ Corporation, Dawn News Network and CNBC as a producer, video-journalist and news-anchor, and later worked at TRT World as a correspondent in which he covered the Afghan peace process and the end of the US occupation in 2021. He supports the SAMRKAND initiative for better journalism in South Asia.

Ali Mustafa's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3Xnp1RiTRPCrtLsXZyqCYg

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Qatar again has served as the location for Afghanistan-centred gatherings. As a UN-convened conference kicked off, representatives from different countries, international bodies as well as Afghan civil society gathered in Doha as part of what was supposed to be a discussion on how to transition Afghanistan out of its state of diplomatic and legal isolation following the Taliban's takeover in 2021. More important than those who attended, as events transpired, were those who were absent. Following a series of diplomatic breakthroughs, and amidst expectations that it too would attend, the Taliban-led government announced abruptly that it would not be attending the conference. Its conditions to attend the meeting, per its spokesman, had not been met. Kabul's conditions, UN Secretary General António Guterres later claimed, essentially amounted to a demand for full recognition of the Taliban-led government as the legitimate representative of the Afghan state.

Elsewhere, controversy in Pakistan continues. After weeks of instability following controversial elections, a coalition government was formed between the parties that came second and third in recent elections was formed. Independents affiliated with now jailed ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan remain excluded.

The new Prime Minister is Shahbaz Sharif: a former Prime Minister and brother of two-time ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Asif Ali Zardari: former President, husband of ex-PM Benazir Bhutto and father of Bilawal Bhutto (leader of the Pakistan People's Party), is to serve as new President.

As fragile coalitions are formed and widespread allegations of election rigging, Pakistan's powerful military continues to crack down on social media and supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

Amidst Pakistan' persistent political instability, Ahmed-Waleed and Sangar discuss whether and how the South Asian country's woes will impact Afghanistan.

Links/references:

Chinese envoy 'regrets' Taliban absence at Doha conference:
https://www.khaama.com/china-regrets-the-un-doha-meetings-failure-to-engage-in-dialogue-with-taliban/

US Special Envoy Thomas West's reflections on Doha Conference: https://twitter.com/US4AfghanPeace/status/1760815035419381856

UN Secretary General: 'We want a peaceful Afghanistan': https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/02/1146657

Pakistan's dire economic situation:
https://www.ft.com/content/fbdf57c2-cce4-4c35-827a-1528899f5fb7

Mawlana Fazlur Rahman on his links to Afghanistan: https://x.com/adilkha89345692/status/1757789279839797482?s=46

Mawlana Fazlur Rahman on Imran Khan's ouster:
https://www.dawn.com/news/1814484

Pakistan's new coalition government: https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/2/21/pakistan-parties-agree-deal-to-form-coalition-government

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Pakistan concluding fiercely contested elections amidst turmoil and mass claims of irregularities is only the latest development in an eventful 2024. The year has been similarly eventful for Afghanistan's foreign relations. On 29th January, the Taliban-led Afghan government organised an unprecedented conference in Kabul attended by the representatives of neighbouring and regional countries. These included India, Russia, Kazakhstan and China. Meanwhile, an interview of Pakistani interim Prime Minister Anwar ul-Haq Kakar seemed to indicate a shifting attitude toward Afghanistan from trouble South-Asian country, whilst the Afghan embassy in Uzbekistan was handed over to diplomats of the Taliban-led government in Kabul.

Those developments, however, were shadowed by the events of 30th January. At a ceremony in Beijing attended by the diplomats of over 40 countries, Afghan ambassador-designate Bilal Karimi was formally received and accepted by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Karimi had previously been received by officials at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, (covered in S.2 E.4) but his reception by the Chinese President was unparalleled as far as Kabul's quest for diplomatic recognition is concerned. International media quickly reported the meeting's significance, whilst the US State Department publicly called on China for 'clarity' on whether the reception constituted its formal recognition of the Taliban's government.

Speaking amongst themselves as well as to experts, Ahmed-Waleed and Sangar discuss whether the events mark the beginning of greater overseas legitimacy of the post-2021 Taliban-led government, the effects of these developments, and what they reveal about Kabul's diplomatic priorities.

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Amidst deteriorating relations between Kabul and Islamabad, news emerged on 18th December. The Afghan ambassador to Pakistan confirmed that an invitation had been extended to Pakistani politician Maulana Fazlur Rahman to visit Kabul. The visit, according to many sources, was intended to defuse tensions between the neighbours; Fazlur Rahman, an influential politician and religious scholar, could mediate between the two.

In Episode 5 of Season Two of The Afghan Eye podcast, Ahmed-Waleed Kakar discusses Maulana Fazlur Rahman: who is he, what is his background, and why is he important enough to serve as a mediator between Afghanistan and Pakistan? Ahmed-Waleed Kakar also asks experts about their views on the prospects of any mediation being successful.

Fazlur Rahman invited to visit Kabul:
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2450369/fazl-invited-to-kabul-amid-rising-tensions

Fazlur Rahman to visit Kabul on Wednesday: https://www.ariananews.af/maulana-fazal-ur-rehman-to-visit-kabul-on-wednesday/

Fazlur Rahman interview with BBC Pashto: 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ldg-oLctJ2M

US sanctions on two Taliban leaders:
https://www.state.gov/promoting-accountability-in-support-of-the-75th-anniversary-of-the-universal-declaration-of-human-rights/

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On 1st December 2023, the Taliban's ambassador was greeted by an official at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Bilal Karimi formally presented his credentials to and was received by Hong Lei: the Director General of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Protocol Department.

The picture was shared triumphantly by the Taliban on X (formerly known as Twitter) and thereafter quickly circulated across social media as it was reported by various global outlets. Analysts and commentators quickly jumped onto the discussion, debating whether the meeting and reception of the Taliban's ambassador constituted Beijing's official recognition, by extension, of the Taliban's government. If so, it would make China the first country to recognise the Taliban, and would mark a huge victory for the group in their hitherto unsuccessful quest for international acceptance.

In this episode, Ahmed-Waleed Kakar examines the meeting and the underlying context behind the widely perceived official recognition of the Taliban by China. Did this meeting really mean the official recognition of the Taliban and if so, what did it mean for Afghanistan and the region? What was the larger context of the Taliban's control over foreign embassies staffed by the previous regime's diplomats? What is the nature of the bilateral relationship between the Taliban and Beijing, and the various factors and common interests influencing these?

Links/references:

China formally receives Afghan (Taliban) ambassador: https://www.voanews.com/a/taliban-say-afghan-embassy-in-india-set-to-resume-operations-soon/7377115.html

Taliban 'handed keys' to embassy in India: https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/india/afghan-embassy-delhi-taliban-zakia-wardak-b2456762.html

Trilateral summit statement: https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/zxxx_662805/202305/t20230509_11073522.html

Taliban open to joining the Belt and Road Initiative: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taliban-says-plans-formally-join-chinas-belt-road-initiative-2023-10-19/

Taliban sign mining contracts: https://apnews.com/article/afghanistan-taliban-mining-contract-dfd109247a44e46a9d41d8e1db76e541

Mullah Hassan welcomes newly appointed Chinese ambassador: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/13/taliban-gives-a-warm-welcome-to-chinas-new-ambassador-to-afghanistan

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On 24th November 2023, a conference was convened in the Russian capital of Moscow. Attendees included Russian politicians and an Iranian government representative. The conference was also attended by a number of exiled Afghan politicians: Shukria Barakzai, Fawzia Koofi, Muhammad Muhaqqiq, Ahmad Wali Massoud, and Ahmad Massoud.

The event follows months of conflicting statements made by Russian officials about Afghanistan. In particular, Russian Special Envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov has repeatedly reprimanded the Afghan government and highlighted its lack of ethnopolitical inclusivity. At the same time, Kabulov has stressed the need for engagement with Kabul and praised its counter-narcotics efforts as well as its ongoing campaign against Daesh (ISKP).

What is driving Russia's seemingly mixed signals to Kabul? Ahmed-Waleed Kakar examines the conferences, and assesses what it reveals and signifies about Russo-Afghan relations.

Links/references:

Massoud’s speech at the Moscow Conference: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsUL230Px3c&t=4s

Kabulov: The Afghan government is currently not inclusive. Link: https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-183805

Kabulov: The Taliban must ensure ethnopolitical inclusivity for recognition. https://tass.com/politics/1681639?

Kazan Declaration: https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1906997/

Kabulov: Ethnic minorities are over half of the Afghan population.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/ties-with-afghanistan-should-not-be-hostage-to-taliban-recognition-russian-president-s-envoy/3017031#

Russian Ambassador meets Afghan Foreign Minister. https://twitter.com/HafizZiaAhmad/status/1728399725706281378

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On 6th November 2023, senior and former American diplomat Annie Pforzheimer wrote an article for World Politics Review. In the article, Pforzheimer, who has previously worked extensively as an American diplomat in Afghanistan, highlighted the signs that the Biden Administration was mulling widening and upgrading its ties with the Taliban, now the government of Afghanistan. Pforzheimer argued that, based on lingering concerns regarding human rights as well as the Taliban's perceived ties to terrorist organisations, that Washington ought to desist from improving its ties with the Taliban.

In the second episode of Season 2 of The Afghan Eye Podcast, Ahmed-Waleed Kakar dissects Pforzheimer's article, the references it sources, and the arguments presented within it.

Are improved American-Afghan relations really on the horizon?  What does this mean for Afghanistan?

(Thumbnail photo of Afghan Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani by AHMAD SAHEL ARMAN/AFP via Getty Images. Instagram @a.sahel_arman)

Articles referenced:

The article:
 https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-afghanistan-taliban/

Annie Pforzheimer's biography:
 https://www.csis.org/people/annie-pforzheimer

CSIS’ funding and donors:
 https://www.csis.org/about/financial-information

The UN's 2023 report: https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N23/125/36/PDF/N2312536.pdf?OpenElement

The UN's 2022 report: 
 https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N22/333/77/PDF/N2233377.pdf?OpenElement

The Doha Agreement:
 https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf

Afghan Ministerial Visit to Islamabad:
 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/14/taliban-minister-raised-refugee-assets-issue-during-pakistan-visit-embassy

Afghan goods held in Karachi:
 https://www.arabnews.pk/node/2387031/pakistan

Peace in Afghanistan a 'nightmare':
 https://tolonews.com/afghanistan-185983

Regional recognition of Taliban to be 'simultaneous':
 https://www.voanews.com/a/regional-countries-mulling-simultaneous-taliban-recognition-pakistani-envoy-says/7357983.html

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On 2nd October 2023, Pakistan's Interior Minister Sarfaraz Bugti announced that illegal immigrants residing in the country would be given  one month to return to their home countries.  Whilst not explicitly aimed at Afghans, the majority of projected deportees, roughly numbering 1.73 million, would be Afghans. Since 1st November, with the passage of a month's deadline, deportations have been carried out in earnest. Disturbing reports have surfaced; Afghans have been subject to physical abuse in addition to having their wealth seized by Pakistani police at border crossings. Afghans legally registered and residing in Pakistan have also reported harassment from the country's notorious security apparatus.

Pakistani Caretaker Prime Minister Anwar ul-Haq Kakar on 8th November stated that the deportations were down to Kabul's refusal to cooperate with Islamabad on curtailing the increased activity of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), widely considered to be under Kabul's influence. Afghan refugees, Kakar also claimed, were largely responsible for Pakistan's perilous security situation.

Ahmed-Waleed Kakar analyses the motivations behind the drastic decision by Islamabad, explaining the larger context of Afghan-Pakistani relations since 2021 and what effects could be expected going forth.

Articles referenced:

Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/pakistan-pm-says-expulsion-afghans-response-taliban-non-cooperation-2023-11-08/

Al Jazeera English: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/3/pakistan-wants-undocumented-migrants-to-leave-by-november-1-or-get-deported

Al Jazeera English: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/2/7/afghan-refugees-status-extended-until-end-of-year

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