On 18th March 2024, Afghanistan's remote and southeastern Paktika province found itself subject to aerial bombardment. The airstrikes, carried out in the early hours of the morning, were conducted by Pakistani military planes from across the Durand Line. A statement soon released by Islamabad confirmed the airstrikes, claiming these were in response to a recent a deadly TTP attack in Mir Ali, South Waziristan, that had killed scored of Pakistani troops. The target of the airstrikes was reported to be Abdullah Shah: a commander in the TTP's Hafiz Gul Bahadur faction, rumoured to be hiding in Afghanistan.

The airstrikes triggered a barrage of artillery fire from the Afghanistan side in response, whilst locals in Paktika Birmal said that the airstrikes had only killed civilians. Videos soon circulated on social media purportedly showing Abdullah Shah alive and in South Waziristan.

In this episode, Sangar Paykhar hosts Ali Mustafa to discuss what the unexpected flare-up between the two neighbours means for their complex and difficult relationship, and what the attack reveals about the fragility of Pakistan's own domestic politics in the aftermath of a controversial election marred by allegations of fraud and rigging.

Ali Mustafa is a Pakistani-Canadian journalist and a graduate from Columbia University's School of Journalism. He has produced content for Canadian Broadcasting’ Corporation, Dawn News Network and CNBC as a producer, video-journalist and news-anchor, and later worked at TRT World as a correspondent in which he covered the Afghan peace process and the end of the US occupation in 2021. He supports the SAMRKAND initiative for better journalism in South Asia.

Ali Mustafa's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3Xnp1RiTRPCrtLsXZyqCYg

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Qatar again has served as the location for Afghanistan-centred gatherings. As a UN-convened conference kicked off, representatives from different countries, international bodies as well as Afghan civil society gathered in Doha as part of what was supposed to be a discussion on how to transition Afghanistan out of its state of diplomatic and legal isolation following the Taliban's takeover in 2021. More important than those who attended, as events transpired, were those who were absent. Following a series of diplomatic breakthroughs, and amidst expectations that it too would attend, the Taliban-led government announced abruptly that it would not be attending the conference. Its conditions to attend the meeting, per its spokesman, had not been met. Kabul's conditions, UN Secretary General António Guterres later claimed, essentially amounted to a demand for full recognition of the Taliban-led government as the legitimate representative of the Afghan state.

Elsewhere, controversy in Pakistan continues. After weeks of instability following controversial elections, a coalition government was formed between the parties that came second and third in recent elections was formed. Independents affiliated with now jailed ex-Prime Minister Imran Khan remain excluded.

The new Prime Minister is Shahbaz Sharif: a former Prime Minister and brother of two-time ex-Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. Asif Ali Zardari: former President, husband of ex-PM Benazir Bhutto and father of Bilawal Bhutto (leader of the Pakistan People's Party), is to serve as new President.

As fragile coalitions are formed and widespread allegations of election rigging, Pakistan's powerful military continues to crack down on social media and supporters of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

Amidst Pakistan' persistent political instability, Ahmed-Waleed and Sangar discuss whether and how the South Asian country's woes will impact Afghanistan.

Links/references:

Chinese envoy 'regrets' Taliban absence at Doha conference:
https://www.khaama.com/china-regrets-the-un-doha-meetings-failure-to-engage-in-dialogue-with-taliban/

US Special Envoy Thomas West's reflections on Doha Conference: https://twitter.com/US4AfghanPeace/status/1760815035419381856

UN Secretary General: 'We want a peaceful Afghanistan': https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/02/1146657

Pakistan's dire economic situation:
https://www.ft.com/content/fbdf57c2-cce4-4c35-827a-1528899f5fb7

Mawlana Fazlur Rahman on his links to Afghanistan: https://x.com/adilkha89345692/status/1757789279839797482?s=46

Mawlana Fazlur Rahman on Imran Khan's ouster:
https://www.dawn.com/news/1814484

Pakistan's new coalition government: https://www.aljazeera.com/program/newsfeed/2024/2/21/pakistan-parties-agree-deal-to-form-coalition-government

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Pakistan concluding fiercely contested elections amidst turmoil and mass claims of irregularities is only the latest development in an eventful 2024. The year has been similarly eventful for Afghanistan's foreign relations. On 29th January, the Taliban-led Afghan government organised an unprecedented conference in Kabul attended by the representatives of neighbouring and regional countries. These included India, Russia, Kazakhstan and China. Meanwhile, an interview of Pakistani interim Prime Minister Anwar ul-Haq Kakar seemed to indicate a shifting attitude toward Afghanistan from trouble South-Asian country, whilst the Afghan embassy in Uzbekistan was handed over to diplomats of the Taliban-led government in Kabul.

Those developments, however, were shadowed by the events of 30th January. At a ceremony in Beijing attended by the diplomats of over 40 countries, Afghan ambassador-designate Bilal Karimi was formally received and accepted by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Karimi had previously been received by officials at the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, (covered in S.2 E.4) but his reception by the Chinese President was unparalleled as far as Kabul's quest for diplomatic recognition is concerned. International media quickly reported the meeting's significance, whilst the US State Department publicly called on China for 'clarity' on whether the reception constituted its formal recognition of the Taliban's government.

Speaking amongst themselves as well as to experts, Ahmed-Waleed and Sangar discuss whether the events mark the beginning of greater overseas legitimacy of the post-2021 Taliban-led government, the effects of these developments, and what they reveal about Kabul's diplomatic priorities.

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