“That is a war that’s dying to be settled. I will get it settled before I even become president.”

- Donald Trump, during a September 2024 presidential debate

US President-elect Donald Trump has for two years loudly and boldly proclaimed that the Russia-Ukraine war needs to end, and that he is uniquely qualified to quickly bring that about. This episode explores the challenges Mr. Trump will face in his efforts to bring about a deal that is satisfactory enough for both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. By far the most important aspect in armistice negotiations between warring parties is the current military situation, the “realities on the ground” to use a commonly used phrase. That will be the focus on this episode. We will also look into potential options for the incoming US President might explore as he attempts to navigate a situation that even has recently indicated was more difficult than the Middle East. Either way, we will soon learn just how influential Mr. Trump’s reputation as a strong-minded figure who is nevertheless willing to broker deals will be on a Russia-Ukraine War that is nearing its third year.

“When America had defeated Japan by detonating an atomic bomb, the Führer had sent a V-3 rocket to explode in the skies of New York to prove he could retaliate in kind if struck. After that, the war had dwindled to ... a nuclear stalemate the diplomats called the cold war.”

- Robert Harris, from the novel Fatherland.

In this episode we continue to look at one of the most common “What If?” questions in history: the plausibility of the Axis powers (specifically Germany) winning the Second World War. Also, probably the most complicated. In the first part, we looked at historical patterns and the major factors that greatly favored the Allies. Nevertheless, Germany seemed to be in a good position by the Autumn of 1940, even if it was defeated in the Battle of Britain. The British Empire's position in the Mediterranean and the Middle East seemed vulnerable, the Soviet Union was still collaborating with Nazi Germany, and the United States was still neutral. We pick up the story here and explore possible alternative paths history might have taken. We try to stay true to the historical circumstances and key factors that weighed on leaders and decision makers that made the events of WWII unfold as it did. While the obstacles of an Axis powers seem daunting, maybe there was an alternative path Germany and Japan could have taken for a different outcome.

“This is how history went after McCoy changed it … Because ALL this lets them develop the A-bomb first. With the A-bomb & with their V2 rockets to carry them, Germany captured the world.”

- Spock, from the Star Trek Episode, “The City on the Edge of Forever.”

In this episode we look at one of the most common “What If?” questions in history: the plausibility of the Axis powers (specifically Germany) winning the Second World War. Also, probably the most complicated. Could Germany have been better off waiting to start the war? What if Hitler’s strategic errors are removed from the equation? Was the Allied victory inevitable? While these and other questions at first glance to make such counterfactual assessments a rabbit hole way too deep, when the nature of the Second World War is examined closely and longstanding historical patterns in warfare are kept in mind, the reasoning for the Allied victory becomes clear and, consequently, potential paths the Axis powers could have taken for a different outcome are few.