More indications of substantial problems for American workers - they can't find any jobs. But why? Moreover, what will it take to get this major hiring freeze to thaw? It isn't rate cuts or lower rates. Nor does it appear the election has worked, either. Consumers plunged back into fears over jobs and incomes in December.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

NBC News From 'Great Resignation' to 'Great Detachment': How the U.S. job market has slowed
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/hard-to-find-a-job-get-hired-why-november-2024-jobs-report-rcna183102

Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Pulled Back in December
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

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Major shift in the Treasury curve with a critical spread uninverting for the first time in years. Bonds and central banks are on the move, which leaves some of Treasury market going the wrong way. And the only reason is Jay Powell. From swaps to other bonds, even something called term premia, the Fed is in the dark while bonds are lighting up.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

FRBNY Term Premia calculations
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs#/interactive

Bloomberg Treasury ‘Term Premium’ Gauge Positive for First Time Since 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/treasury-term-premium-gauge-positive-for-first-time-since-2021

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LT Chinese bond rates have been falling fast for a while. Over the last two weeks, ST yields have completely collapsed; most of it last week, too. Why? Maybe more important, why now? The mainstream answer to either one is total nonsense and easily debunked from the September bazooka. What does that leave? Possibly an old familiar name.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Chinese Regulator Asks Insurers to Report Vanke Debt Holdings
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/chinese-regulator-asks-insurers-to-report-vanke-debt-holdings

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According to the latest conventional 'wisdom' - which changes with each and every CPI report and FOMC dot adjustment - inflation is back and so is the soft landing. The most recent update from the labor market says that's entirely backward. Job findings have utterly plunged right when the jobs market reaches that 'magical' unemployment inflection spot on this critical curve.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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There's more to the Brazil story, especially since Brazil's story isn't strictly about Brazil. With markets there spiraling into chaos, the government is down to blaming 'speculators.' If that's the case, then speculation has gone global in a lot of critical ways. From currencies to job findings plunging, even something real like the Baltic Dry which is crashing now, too.

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Bloomberg Brazil Central Bank Rejects Doubts Over Power of Monetary Policy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-19/brazil-central-bank-rejects-doubts-over-monetary-policy

Bloomberg Brazil Traders ‘Sell First, Ask Later’ as Panic Hits Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-17/brazil-traders-sell-first-ask-later-as-panic-sweeps-markets

FT Warren Buffett's record cash pile is starting to make people nervous
https://financialpost.com/financial-times/warren-buffett-cash-pile-investors-nervous

Bloomberg Brazil Finance Chief Says Real May Be Under ‘Speculative Attack’
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/brazil-finance-chief-says-real-may-be-under-speculative-attack

Bloomberg Brazil Spends $17 Billion in Reserves to Lift Cratering Real
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/central-bank-burns-17-billion-in-reserves-to-lift-brazil-s-real

Bloomberg Brazil’s Wealthy Lament Political Dysfunction as Fortunes Tumble
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-20/brazil-s-richest-people-lament-political-dysfunction-as-fortunes-tumble

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While everyone is hanging on the Fed and the FOMC's indecision about how many rate cuts next year, there are currency crises - plural - beginning to break out in key places. One of those is Brazil where it has gotten so dangerous the country's central bank is now regularly intervening in FX spot markets. What's really going on here? The black hole is angry.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

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Stocks tanked, bond yields soared, the dollar jumped. All because the Fed doesn't know what it's going to do now? Partly, yeah. There's a lot more to the story, however. Given the tortuous road to rate cuts, it wasn't suddenly going to become smooth sailing now that they've started.

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Canada. France. Germany. What do they have in common? Central banks in each are cutting rates. Also, their governments have either collapsed or, Canada, about to. Why? Same reason there are rate cuts. It's not ideology nor really partisanship. It's the economy, stupid.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNBC Canada finance minister quits after clash with Trudeau, deals blow to government
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/canada-finance-minister-quits-after-clash-with-trudeau-deals-blow-to-government-.html

Toronto Sun Trudeau says economy is great, Canadians can see truth
https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/trudeau-says-economy-is-great-canadians-can-see-truth

Bloomberg French Growth Prospects Slow as Political Uncertainty Weighs
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-16/france-s-growth-prospects-weaken-as-political-uncertainty-weighs
CNBC France’s new prime minister gets a baptism of fire after surprise Moody’s downgrade
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/16/frances-new-prime-minister-installed-hours-before-moodys-downgrade.html

NYT German Government Collapses at a Perilous Time for Europe
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/16/world/europe/germany-confidence-vote-scholz-snap-election.html

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