Major shift in the Treasury curve with a critical spread uninverting for the first time in years. Bonds and central banks are on the move, which leaves some of Treasury market going the wrong way. And the only reason is Jay Powell. From swaps to other bonds, even something called term premia, the Fed is in the dark while bonds are lighting up.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

FRBNY Term Premia calculations
https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/data_indicators/term-premia-tabs#/interactive

Bloomberg Treasury ‘Term Premium’ Gauge Positive for First Time Since 2021
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/treasury-term-premium-gauge-positive-for-first-time-since-2021

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

LT Chinese bond rates have been falling fast for a while. Over the last two weeks, ST yields have completely collapsed; most of it last week, too. Why? Maybe more important, why now? The mainstream answer to either one is total nonsense and easily debunked from the September bazooka. What does that leave? Possibly an old familiar name.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Chinese Regulator Asks Insurers to Report Vanke Debt Holdings
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-18/chinese-regulator-asks-insurers-to-report-vanke-debt-holdings

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

According to the latest conventional 'wisdom' - which changes with each and every CPI report and FOMC dot adjustment - inflation is back and so is the soft landing. The most recent update from the labor market says that's entirely backward. Job findings have utterly plunged right when the jobs market reaches that 'magical' unemployment inflection spot on this critical curve.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

https://www.eurodollar.university
Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU