A double whammy on US consumers. First, the government issued an alarming update to the biggest jobs data there is. Then retail giant Target stunned with its Q3 results and more so its guidance for Q4. The thing is, both of those are related; two sides of the macro coin. The one says the summer started really badly, the other it didn't get better.

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Reuters Target raises 2024 profit forecast as price cuts draw shoppers
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/target-raises-annual-profit-forecast-after-price-cuts-boost-quarterly-sales-2024-08-21/

CNBC Target shares plunge 20% after discounter cuts forecast, posts biggest earnings miss in two years
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/20/target-tgt-q3-2024-earnings.html

Bloomberg Target Shares Tumble After Retailer Cuts Profit Outlook
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-20/target-tgt-trims-profit-outlook-on-inventory-buildup-higher-costs

CNN As Americans bargain shop, six-figure earners flock to Walmart
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/investing/walmart-stock-earnings/index.html

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Warren Buffett continues to sell tens of billions worth of stocks. Everyone wants to know why. This divergence between major stock index most likely holds the answer. Normally stock indexes don't mean much beyond their beauty, yet they can be important signals at times like now when they do diverge in such an obvious and sustained way. This is a key cyclical one, too.

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CNBC Berkshire Hathaway’s cash fortress tops $300 billion as Buffett sells more stock, freezes buybacks
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/02/berkshire-hathaways-cash-fortress-tops-300-billion-as-buffett-sells-more-stock-freezes-buybacks.html

Franklin-Templeton
https://www.franklintempleton.com/articles/equity-markets/the-foundry-quandary-owning-semis-late-in-the-cycle

Deloitte Industry Outlook
https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/technology-media-and-telecommunications/articles/semiconductor-industry-outlook.html

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The Federal Reserve reported a sharp rise in delinquencies, especially credit cards and auto loans. That wasn't all, as the New York branches also showed record high rejections strongly indicating where things really stand in the credit cycle. As a result, we have to pay some attention to CRTs, otherwise known as SRTs, the latest financial engineering akin to the 2020s version of credit default swaps.

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FRBNY Household Debt and Credit Report Q3 2024
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc/background.html

Bloomberg Ally Auto Borrowers With 2022 Loans Now Struggling, CFO Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-07/ally-auto-borrowers-with-2022-loans-now-struggling-cfo-says

Bloomberg Ally’s Charge-Offs, Bad-Loan Provisions Beat Expectations
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-17/auto-lender-ally-reports-stronger-than-expected-debt-management

Federal Reserve Frequently Asked Questions about Regulation Q
https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/legalinterpretations/reg-q-frequently-asked-questions.htm

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