A fireside chat on Fitch’s 2025 credit outlook for China’s sovereign, corporate, local government and banking sectors with Jeremy Zook, Ying Wang, Samuel Kwok and Grace Wu.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (00:47) - Macro and Sovereign Outlook
• (03:33) - Impact of US Tariffs on China Corporates
• (04:55) - Property sector outlook
• (05:53) - Impact of Policy Simulus on Corporates
• (07:10) - Local Government Finance Outlook
• (08:36) - Hidden Debt Substitution Policy
• (10:40) - LGFV Sector Risks
• (12:40) - Impact of Rate Cuts on Banks
• (15:24) - Asset Quality Outlook
• (17:21) - Conclusion

Jinny Yan, Chief China Economist at ICBC Standard Bank, discusses her outlook for China’s economy in 2025 and the government’s policy measures and priorities, particularly its focus on de-risking, diversifying and enhancing domestic capacity.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:01) - Key Issues to Watch in 2025
• (02:32) - US/China Trade War Prospects
• (06:29) - Assessing China’s Resilience to Trade Tensions
• (11:12) - Property Sector
• (17:11) - Inflation/Deflation Outlook
• (20:13) - Monetary Policy Response
• (23:57) - Fiscal Policy Response
• (28:27) - Government Bond Market Drivers
• (33:39) - Conclusion

Jing Yang, Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s solar PV manufacturing industry.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (00:46) - Current state of the industry and reason for oversupply
• (04:37) - Stage of market re-balancing
• (08:00) - Effectiveness of government response
• (13:02) - Impact of Trump 2.0 tariff hikes

David Wang, Professor at the Virginia Tech Dept. of Economics and former Credit Suisse Head of APAC (ex-Japan)Economics, joins us to discuss deflationary risks in the Chinese economy and whether the recent policy stimulus can address these pressures.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:31) - China’s Economic Prospects
• (05:10) - Drivers of deflationary pressures
• (08:37) - Expectations for household confidence
• (11:11) - New productive forces and labour productivity
• (15:46) - Assessment of Recent Policy Actions
• (17:37) - Fiscal Support and Consumption Policies
• (26:16) - Risks of a deflationary spiral
• (29:09) - High Leverage and deflation
• (32:12) - Outro

Elaine Xu, Director in Fitch’s Financial Institutions team, provides an update on how Chinese banks are managing the challenges from economic headwinds, the property correction, and LGFV debt renegotiations.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:38) - Recent trends in bank performance
• (05:06) - Property sector stress impact on banks
• (07:26) - Banks role in property policy response
• (09:26) - LGFV exposures and debt renegotiations
• (11:16) - Impact of LGFV debt renegotiations
• (13:01) - Risks for small regional banks
• (14:33) - Banks increased policy role and its impact
• (15:40) - Conclusion

Samuel Kwok, Head of Fitch’s APAC International Public Finance shares his views on China’s local government and LGFV debt problem.

• (01:21) - 1H24 local governments’ fiscal trends
• (04:02) - Expect marginal improvement in 2H24
• (05:30) - Effect of measures to de-risk twelve “high-risk” provinces
• (08:22) - LGFVs’ onshore bond yields at record low
• (11:28) - Introduction of top three credit themes
• (12:25) - Potential impact of reform measures pledged by Third Plenum
• (14:21) - The second credit theme on social housing investment
• (15:17) - The third credit theme on LGFV debt restrictions
• (16:32) - Maintain a neutral credit outlook

Shuncheng Zhang, Associate Director of Fitch’s China Corporates Team based in Shanghai, shares China’s housing demand forecast from 2024 to 2040.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:05) - 2024-2040 Housing Demand
• (03:43) - New Private Home Supply
• (06:08) - Overview of Forecast Model
• (09:13) - Factors Leading to Demand Plunge
• (12:47) - Public and Secondary Housing Supply
• (13:58) - Fitch’s Forecast vs. Others’

Lan Wang, Senior Director in Fitch’s Credit Policy Group, joins for a wide-ranging discussion on China credit developments, including recent rating actions, growth prospects, property and banking sector outlooks, and recent EU tariffs on Chinese EVs.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (00:55) - China Sovereign Rating Action
• (01:48) - Rating actions in other Chinese entities
• (04:40) - 2024 Macro Outlook for China
• (06:12) - Property Sector Prospects
• (08:42) - Banking Sector Outlook
• (10:58) - EU tariffs on Chinese EVs