A fireside chat on Fitch’s 2025 credit outlook for China’s sovereign, corporate, local government and banking sectors with Jeremy Zook, Ying Wang, Samuel Kwok and Grace Wu.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (00:47) - Macro and Sovereign Outlook
• (03:33) - Impact of US Tariffs on China Corporates
• (04:55) - Property sector outlook
• (05:53) - Impact of Policy Simulus on Corporates
• (07:10) - Local Government Finance Outlook
• (08:36) - Hidden Debt Substitution Policy
• (10:40) - LGFV Sector Risks
• (12:40) - Impact of Rate Cuts on Banks
• (15:24) - Asset Quality Outlook
• (17:21) - Conclusion

Jinny Yan, Chief China Economist at ICBC Standard Bank, discusses her outlook for China’s economy in 2025 and the government’s policy measures and priorities, particularly its focus on de-risking, diversifying and enhancing domestic capacity.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:01) - Key Issues to Watch in 2025
• (02:32) - US/China Trade War Prospects
• (06:29) - Assessing China’s Resilience to Trade Tensions
• (11:12) - Property Sector
• (17:11) - Inflation/Deflation Outlook
• (20:13) - Monetary Policy Response
• (23:57) - Fiscal Policy Response
• (28:27) - Government Bond Market Drivers
• (33:39) - Conclusion

Jing Yang, Director of Fitch Ratings, discusses key credit trends of China’s solar PV manufacturing industry.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (00:46) - Current state of the industry and reason for oversupply
• (04:37) - Stage of market re-balancing
• (08:00) - Effectiveness of government response
• (13:02) - Impact of Trump 2.0 tariff hikes