Donald Trump unsurprisingly dominated the news cycle in his first week back in office. To make sense of what he's pledged, threatened and suggested so far, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what we know about tariffs, how global central banks are meant to navigate this more uncertain new environment and whether the Fed is in for a particularly contentious relationship with the White House.

Plus, the new president has already made a big splash in oil markets, including an Inauguration Day pledge to “drill baby, drill” and a call for Saudi Arabia to lower prices. David Oxley, Kieran Tompkins, Olivia Cross and Hamad Hussein from our Commodities and Climate team address the issues that Trump has raised around oil and explain why downside risks to prices have just grown.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Central Bank Hub
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/central-bank-hub

Read: Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrow
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/strong-dollar-problem-tomorrow

Event: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2025
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-unpacking-first-rate-decisions-2025

Read: What to make of Trump’s National Energy Emergency?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-focus/what-make-trumps-national-energy-emergency

Read: How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/how-low-could-oil-prices-go-if-saudi-open-oil-taps

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing calls in from Singapore to The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about what’s known and unknown about Donald Trump’s policy agenda just days before he is sworn in again. He discusses the tone set by Trump's first inaugural address, what we've learned from recent confirmation hearings and the inflation impact of a gradual rise in tariffs. Neil also talks about why our China Activity Proxy is telling a different story from official Chinese GDP data and explains why the UK has so much potential in the AI revolution.

Also on the show, fresh from his team being named most accurate forecaster of major global stock indices by LSEG Data & Analytics for a second straight year, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins talks about why we expect 2025 to be another strong year for US equities.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

CAP: Weaker fiscal support behind growth slowdown
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weaker-fiscal-support-behind-growth-slowdown

US continues to lead the way on our AI index
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/us-continues-lead-way-our-ai-index

US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/us-drop-inauguration-day-special-knowns-and-unknowns-around-trumps-second-term

Why we expect the S&P 500 to thrive in 2025
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/why-we-expect-sp-500-thrive-2025

A grim week for bonds was capped by a stunningly hot US jobs report. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann joined the first episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year to explain what these jobs numbers signal about the health of the US economy and how the Fed could respond.

They also discuss the fall-out in global bond markets, including why gilts have been under particular pressure despite the Labour government’s efforts to prove its fiscal bona fides with the investors.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

UK Weekly: Gilt market is not in crisis, but it does cause problems
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-weekly/gilt-market-not-crisis-it-does-cause-problems

China Weekly: More weakness in store for the renminbi
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-weekly/china-weekly-more-weakness-store-renminbi

Capital Economics events
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events

The final Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year has Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing making sense of that December Federal Reserve meeting and explaining what the latest PCE data say about the inflation outlook and where rates are heading in 2025. He also addresses why hopes for a sweeping ‘Mar-a-Lago accord’ (or 'Plaza Accord 2.0') that would tackle US-China currency imbalances are likely to be disappointed.

Plus, a dramatic plunge in the value of Brazil’s real shows how far investors have fallen out with Lula’s spendthrift administration. In an exclusive clip from our client briefing on Brazil’s crisis, William Jackson, Jason Tuvey and Jonas Goltermann discuss the real’s fair value, the effectiveness of FX intervention and what the government needs to do to get investors back onside.

Events and analysis referenced in this episode:

The Fracturing of the Global Economy
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/key-issues/fracturing-global-economy

Data: Bank of England Caseometer
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/bank-england-caseometer

EM Drop-In: Brazil’s currency crisis – Economic and market implications
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/em-drop-brazils-currency-crisis-economic-and-market-implications

Data: EM Financial Risk Indicators
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/em-financial-risk-indicators

In the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing outlines the three big policy quandaries facing three big DM central banks. He unpacks the ECB’s December decision, previews the upcoming Fed and Bank of England meetings and talks about which of these institutions faces the greatest risks in 2025.

Neil also talks about whether China’s policy pivot will translate into meaningful efforts to support and rebalance the economy, discusses what events in Syria say about geopolitics and the macro narrative and highlights a key risk for the coming year.

Plus, following our dive into the big macro themes for 2025, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins is on the show to talk about the financial markets outlook – including why we think a bubble in US equities will keep inflating over the coming year.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Drop-In: The Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings and the 2025 policy outlook
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-december-meetings-and-2025-policy-outlook

Latest quarterly Outlooks
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/outlooks

Week-ahead Forecasts
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/week-ahead-forecasts

This is a special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics all about the themes that will shape the global economy in 2025. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Chief Global Economist Jennifer McKeown stepped out of our client event in London on 4th December to talk to David Wilder about the 2025 growth story.

They discussed how Donald Trump’s policy pledges will – and won’t – affect US and global macro variables in the coming year, whether creaking public debt profiles will stir up the bond vigilantes, the limits of geopolitics as a driver of the macro story and more.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Five for 25: The macro themes that will shape next year
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/five-25-macro-themes-will-shape-next-year

Drop-In: The World in 2025 – The global macro and market outlook
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-world-2025-global-macro-and-market-outlook

It was déjà vu all over again this week after a social media post from Donald Trump rattled markets. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss how seriously we should treat the president-elect’s online threat to impose sweeping tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China. He also talks about whether moves in the bond market suggest that China is turning Japanese and warns of a distorted November US payrolls report.

Plus, a lot of time is spent analysing which economies are going to lose out when Trump returns to the White House, but what about the potential winners? Deputy Chief EM Economist Shilan Shah explains how Indian manufacturing could get a boost in an intensified global trade war.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Event: The World in 2025
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/world-2025-event-december-2024

How to think about tariffs
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffs

Global Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond

Data: China Activity Proxy
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/china-activity-proxy

Is a bubble in India’s stock market deflating?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/bubble-indias-stock-market-deflating

This special episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics is an exclusive extract from our online Drop-In briefing following Donald Trump’s threat to impose massive tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.

Was this a negotiating ploy from the president-elect? Who’ll pay the cost of higher tariffs? How would targeted countries respond?

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing, Vicky Redwood, our Senior Economic Adviser, and Chief Europe Economist Andrew Kenningham answered these questions and more in our day-after briefing.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

How to think about tariffs
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/how-think-about-tariffs

Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line​
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/canada-china-and-mexico-trumps-firing-line

Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/global-drop-us-tariffs-how-theyll-work-what-theyll-do-and-how-world-will-respond