Donald Trump unsurprisingly dominated the news cycle in his first week back in office. To make sense of what he's pledged, threatened and suggested so far, Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing is on The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to discuss what we know about tariffs, how global central banks are meant to navigate this more uncertain new environment and whether the Fed is in for a particularly contentious relationship with the White House.

Plus, the new president has already made a big splash in oil markets, including an Inauguration Day pledge to “drill baby, drill” and a call for Saudi Arabia to lower prices. David Oxley, Kieran Tompkins, Olivia Cross and Hamad Hussein from our Commodities and Climate team address the issues that Trump has raised around oil and explain why downside risks to prices have just grown.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

Central Bank Hub
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/central-bank-hub

Read: Strong dollar is a problem for tomorrow
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-focus/strong-dollar-problem-tomorrow

Event: Fed, ECB and BoE – Unpacking the first rate decisions of 2025
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/drop-fed-ecb-and-boe-unpacking-first-rate-decisions-2025

Read: What to make of Trump’s National Energy Emergency?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-focus/what-make-trumps-national-energy-emergency

Read: How low could oil prices go if Saudi open the oil taps?
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/commodities-update/how-low-could-oil-prices-go-if-saudi-open-oil-taps

Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing calls in from Singapore to The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics to talk about what’s known and unknown about Donald Trump’s policy agenda just days before he is sworn in again. He discusses the tone set by Trump's first inaugural address, what we've learned from recent confirmation hearings and the inflation impact of a gradual rise in tariffs. Neil also talks about why our China Activity Proxy is telling a different story from official Chinese GDP data and explains why the UK has so much potential in the AI revolution.

Also on the show, fresh from his team being named most accurate forecaster of major global stock indices by LSEG Data & Analytics for a second straight year, Chief Markets Economist John Higgins talks about why we expect 2025 to be another strong year for US equities.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

CAP: Weaker fiscal support behind growth slowdown
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-activity-monitor/cap-weaker-fiscal-support-behind-growth-slowdown

US continues to lead the way on our AI index
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/us-continues-lead-way-our-ai-index

US Drop-In: Inauguration Day special – Knowns and unknowns around Trump’s second term
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events/us-drop-inauguration-day-special-knowns-and-unknowns-around-trumps-second-term

Why we expect the S&P 500 to thrive in 2025
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/equities-focus/why-we-expect-sp-500-thrive-2025

A grim week for bonds was capped by a stunningly hot US jobs report. Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing and Deputy Chief Markets Economist Jonas Goltermann joined the first episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics of the year to explain what these jobs numbers signal about the health of the US economy and how the Fed could respond.

They also discuss the fall-out in global bond markets, including why gilts have been under particular pressure despite the Labour government’s efforts to prove its fiscal bona fides with the investors.

Analysis and events referenced in this episode:

UK Weekly: Gilt market is not in crisis, but it does cause problems
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/uk-economics-weekly/gilt-market-not-crisis-it-does-cause-problems

China Weekly: More weakness in store for the renminbi
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-weekly/china-weekly-more-weakness-store-renminbi

Capital Economics events
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/events