muckrAIkers

By: Jacob Haimes and Igor Krawczuk
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  • Summary

  • Join us as we dig a tiny bit deeper into the hype surrounding "AI" press releases, research papers, and more. Each episode, we'll highlight ongoing research and investigations, providing some much needed contextualization, constructive critique, and even a smidge of occasional good will teasing to the conversation, trying to find the meaning under all of this muck.
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Mathematics Science
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Episodes
  • How to Safely Handle Your AGI

    How to Safely Handle Your AGI
    Dec 2 2024
    While on the campaign trail, Trump made claims about repealing Biden's Executive Order on AI, but what will actually be changed when he gets into office? We take this opportunity to examine policies being discussed or implemented by leading governments around the world.(00:00) - Intro (00:29) - Hot off the press (02:59) - Repealing the AI executive order? (11:16) - "Manhattan" for AI (24:33) - EU (30:47) - UK (39:27) - Bengio (44:39) - Comparing EU/UK to USA (45:23) - China (51:12) - Taxes (55:29) - The muckLinksSFChronicle article - US gathers allies to talk AI safety as Trump's vow to undo Biden's AI policy overshadows their workTrump's Executive Order on AI (the AI governance executive order at home)Biden's Executive Order on AICongressional report brief which advises a "Manhattan Project for AI"Non-USACAIRNE resource collection on CERN for AIUK Frontier AI Taskforce report (2023)International interim report (2024)Bengio's paper - AI and Catastrophic RiskDavidad's Safeguarded AI program at ARIAMIT Technology Review article - Four things to know about China’s new AI rules in 2024GovInsider article - Australia’s national policy for ethical use of AI starts to take shapeFuture of Privacy forum article - The African Union’s Continental AI Strategy: Data Protection and Governance Laws Set to Play a Key Role in AI RegulationTaxesMacroeconomic Dynamics paper - Automation, Stagnation, and the Implications of a Robot TaxCESifo paper - AI, Automation, and TaxationGavTax article - Taxation of Artificial Intelligence and AutomationPerplexity PagesCERN for AI pageChina's AI policy pageSingapore's AI policy pageAI policy in Africa, India, Australia pageOther SourcesArtificial Intelligence Made Simple article - NYT's "AI Outperforms Doctors" Story Is WrongIntel report - Reclaim Your Day: The Impact of AI PCs on ProductivityHeise Online article - Users on AI PCs slower, Intel sees problem in unenlightened usersThe Hacker News article - North Korean Hackers Steal $10M with AI-Driven Scams and Malware on LinkedInFuturism article - Character.AI Is Hosting Pedophile Chatbots That Groom Users Who Say They're UnderageVice article - 'AI Jesus' Is Now Taking Confessions at a Church in SwitzerlandPolitico article - Ted Cruz: Congress 'doesn't know what the hell it's doing' with AI regulationUS Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation press release - Sen. Cruz Sounds Alarm Over Industry Role in AI Czar Harris’s Censorship Agenda
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    58 mins
  • The End of Scaling?

    The End of Scaling?
    Nov 19 2024
    Multiple news outlets, including The Information, Bloomberg, and Reuters [see sources] are reporting an "end of scaling" for the current AI paradigm. In this episode we look into these articles, as well as a wide variety of economic forecasting, empirical analysis, and technical papers to understand the validity, and impact of these reports. We also use this as an opportunity to contextualize the realized versus promised fruits of "AI".(00:23) - Hot off the press (01:49) - The end of scaling (10:50) - "Useful tools" and "agentic" "AI" (17:19) - The end of quantization (25:18) - Hedging (29:41) - The end of upwards mobility (33:12) - How to grow an economy (38:14) - Transformative & disruptive tech (49:19) - Finding the meaning (56:14) - Bursting AI bubble and Trump (01:00:58) - The muckLinksThe Information article - OpenAI Shifts Strategy as Rate of ‘GPT’ AI Improvements SlowsBloomberg [article] - OpenAI, Google and Anthropic Are Struggling to Build More Advanced AIReuters article - OpenAI and others seek new path to smarter AI as current methods hit limitationsPaper on the end of quantization - Scaling Laws for PrecisionTim Dettmers Tweet on "Scaling Laws for Precision"Empirical AnalysisWU Vienna paper - Unslicing the pie: AI innovation and the labor share in European regionsIMF paper - The Labor Market Impact of Artificial Intelligence: Evidence from US RegionsNBER paper - Automation, Career Values, and Political PreferencesPew Research Center report - Which U.S. Workers Are More Exposed to AI on Their Jobs?ForecastingNBER/Acemoglu paper - The Simple Macroeconomics of AINBER/Acemoglu paper - Harms of AIIMF report - Gen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of WorkSubmission to Open Philanthropy AI Worldviews Contest - Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likelyExternalities and the Bursting BubbleNBER paper - Bubbles, Rational Expectations and Financial MarketsClayton Christensen lecture capture - Clayton Christensen: Disruptive innovationThe New Republic article - The “Godfather of AI” Predicted I Wouldn’t Have a Job. He Was Wrong.Latent Space article - $2 H100s: How the GPU Rental Bubble BurstOn ProductizationPalantir press release on introduction of Claude to US security and defenseArs Technica article - Claude AI to process secret government data through new Palantir dealOpenAI press release on partnering with Condé NastCandid Technology article - Shutterstock and Getty partner with OpenAI and BRIAE2BStripe agentsRobopairOther SourcesCBS News article - Google AI chatbot responds with a threatening message: "Human … Please die."Biometric Update article - Travelers to EU may be subjected to AI lie detectorTechcrunch article - OpenAI’s tumultuous early years revealed in emails from Musk, Altman, and othersRichard Ngo Tweet on leaving OpenAI
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    1 hr and 7 mins
  • US National Security Memorandum on AI, Oct 2024

    US National Security Memorandum on AI, Oct 2024
    Nov 6 2024

    October 2024 saw a National Security Memorandum and US framework for using AI in national security contexts. We go through the content so you don't have to, pull out the important bits, and summarize our main takeaways.

    • (00:48) - The memorandum
    • (06:28) - What the press is saying
    • (10:39) - What's in the text
    • (13:48) - Potential harms
    • (17:32) - Miscellaneous notable stuff
    • (31:11) - What's the US governments take on AI?
    • (45:45) - The civil side - comments on reporting
    • (49:31) - The commenters
    • (01:07:33) - Our final hero
    • (01:10:46) - The muck


    Links
    • United States National Security Memorandum on AI
    • Fact Sheet on the National Security Memorandum
    • Framework to Advance AI Governance and Risk Management in National Security

    Related Media

    • CAIS Newsletter - AI Safety Newsletter #43
    • NIST report - Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework: Generative Artificial Intelligence Profile
    • ACLU press release - ACLU Warns that Biden-Harris Administration Rules on AI in National Security Lack Key Protections
    • Wikipedia article - Presidential Memorandum
    • Reuters article - White House presses gov't AI use with eye on security, guardrails
    • Forbes article - America’s AI Security Strategy Acknowledges There’s No Stopping AI
    • DefenseScoop article - New White House directive prods DOD, intelligence agencies to move faster adopting AI capabilities
    • NYTimes article - Biden Administration Outlines Government ‘Guardrails’ for A.I. Tools
    • Forbes article - 5 Things To Know About The New National Security Memorandum On AI – And What ChatGPT Thinks
    • Federal News Network interview - A look inside the latest White House artificial intelligence memo
    • Govtech article - Reactions Mostly Positive to National Security AI Memo
    • The Information article - Biden Memo Encourages Military Use of AI

    Other Sources

    • Physical Intelligence press release - π0: Our First Generalist Policy
    • OpenAI press release - Introducing ChatGPT Search
    • WhoPoo App!!
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    1 hr and 16 mins

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