In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment specialising in Ukrainian and Russian military affairs. They reflect on the developments along Ukraine’s frontlines in 2024, the challenges Ukraine’s and Russia’s armed forces have faced, including high equipment losses as well as shortages of personnel and ammunition, and how the war might evolve in the year ahead. They discuss the implications of the deployment of North Korean troops to support Russian forces in the Kursk region and look at how the new U.S. administration under President Donald Trump might affect the war. They speculate on the potential consequences for Ukraine’s military capabilities if Washington cuts back on weapons aid to Kyiv and whether Europe can muster the resources to fill the gap. They also explore how Ukraine’s and Russia’s armies might evolve in the coming years.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out Michael’s podcast, The Russia Contingency, and Crisis Group’s Q&A “Mobilisation, Peacemaking and Deterrence in Ukraine”, and our Ukraine country page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga Oliker speaks with Lucian Kim, Crisis Group’s Senior Ukraine analyst, about his new book “Putin’s Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine”. They reflect on Lucian’s decades-long career as a journalist covering pivotal political events in Russia and Ukraine, from Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution and the 2014 Euromaidan protests to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. They explore Moscow’s increasingly strained relations with Kyiv and Western capitals, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s shift from a pragmatic leader to an increasingly authoritarian strongman, and what led to his decision to launch the deadliest conflict in Europe since the Second World War. They also discuss which lessons Western policymakers should draw to better engage with Ukraine and Russia to secure European security in the future.

For more, be sure to check out Lucian’s book “Putin’s Revenge: Why Russia Invaded Ukraine”, our latest Q&A “Mobilisation, Peacemaking and Deterrence in Ukraine”, and our Ukraine country page.

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In this episode of War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Lisa Musiol, head of EU affairs to discuss the challenges facing the new European Commission. They ask what the appointment of more right-leaning commissioners might mean for its policy direction and discuss the priorities of the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Kaja Kallas, particularly regarding the war in Ukraine and the future of European defence policy. They examine how the EU is preparing for a second Trump administration and the prospect of Washington reducing its defence commitments to Europe. They also discuss the EU’s evolving global role and whether it can manage to adapt to a fast-changing world order.

Note: This podcast episode was recorded prior to the ouster of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and thus does not address events in that country and their repercussions.

For more, check out the latest update to our EU-Watch List and our Europe and Central Asia program page.

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