Ted and Ravi discuss Manchester City and Inter Milan's chances of winning the Champions League, changes to Erling Haaland's role, Barcelona's strong start and their expectations for the season. They then answer some listener questions which include discussions on player stocks, what to do when teams begin to figure you out, and a deep dive into the use of data to overturn some traditional football opinions.

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Episode Overview

00:33 Introduction

2:38 Man City VS Inter Milan

3:20 Inter in the UCL

6:45 Man City’s UCL Squad

7:45 Man City’s New Style Of Play

12:50 New UCL Format

18:32 Player Fatigue

20:42 Barcelona As Contendors

22:10 Dani Olmo & Barca Injuries

23:35 Hansi Flick’s Bareclona

25:35 Emergence of Youngsters

27:17 Barcelona Expectations

29:05 Biggest Changes Under Flick

32:42 Barca’s UCL Schedule

33:08 Most Entertaining Team

33:42 Hansi Flick vs Xavi

36:25 Players Stocks

39:22 Stocks To Buy

40:14 Bournemouth Under Iraola

40:47 Teams Figuring You Out

43:36 Two Halves of a Season

46:30 Kieran McKenna

47:15 Using Data To Overturn Traditional Opinions

58:45 In Swinging Corners vs Out Swinging Corners

1:03:16 Outro

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Patrick and Ted start the episode by discussing the North London Derby and the weakness that Spurs continue to show in their midfield. Next, they move to Liverpool, who seemed to have fixed there defense, but were unable to get anything going offensively. After touching on City vs Brighton and United vs Southampton, they move to Newcastle's Internal power struggle, as Eddie Howe and Paul Mitchell compete for power. Finally, they end the episode with their thoughts on Chelsea vs Bournemouth (hint: not good) and West Ham vs Fulham. Enjoy!

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

03:28 - Arsenal vs. Spurs

04:47 - The midfield battle

06:30 - Spurs crosses were not effective

07:38 - How teams can get value from crosses

09:23 - Watching the ball vs. the man

10:11 - Spurs' biggest weakness

10:41 - The type of midfielder Spurs needed

11:52 - More opportunities for mistakes

13:40 - The evolution of pressing

14:33 - Alexis Sanchez' pressing ability

15:32 - Arsenal's plan this game

18:39 - The launch of Variance Betting

19:38 - Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest

19:53 - High handicaps coming off international break

20:43 - The signs of value of Nottingham Forest

22:22 - Liverpool's defense continues to shine

23:14 - Liverpool's offensive struggles

25:05 - Ryan Gravenberch in a deeper role

27:16 - Brentford vs. City

28:11 - Thomas Frank as Manager

31:12 - Brentford's possession #'s against City

31:28 - City's lack of pressing

32:05 - The problems Pep is facing

34:20 - Manchester United vs Southampton

35:37 - United's set piece goal

36:40 - Tyler Dibling

37:24 - Is Russell Martin's job safe?

40:13 - Newcastle's internal conflict

42:21 - Paul Mitchell vs Eddie Howe

44:24 - Newcastle are doing well in the table

44:46 - How do Newcastle mend things?

46:06 - Chelsea vs Bournemouth

47:17 - Subbing in Neto for Jadon Sancho

48:09 - Bad signs for long-term success

48:55 - Chelsea need a structured attack

50:53 - West Ham vs Fulham

51:37 - Danny Ings

53:21 - Brighton vs Ipswich

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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his best betting practices and discusses his Premier League Matchday 4 picks. Subscribe for more!

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Introduction

1:44 Who is Ted Knutson?

2:20 Working With Pinnacle.com Products

3:26 Working at Brentford/Midtjylland & SmartOdds

4:05 Founding StatsBomb

4:25 Present Day — TheTransferFlow.com

4:58 Variance Betting Principles

5:21 Discount Bookies > Bonuses

8:20 Price Shop

10:37 Working with Models & Knowledge

12:35 Why Early Season is Tricky

13:54 Your Bets are your own

14:47 Market Implied (MI) Model

16:18 Be careful about Promoted Teams

17:18 Expected Goals (xG) Model

18:07 Caveats

21:06 Plugs

20:23 Recreational Sports Betting

22:32 Brighton v Ipswich Bet

23:52 Southampton v Man United Bet

25:11 Crystal Palace v Leicester Bet

26:02 Fulham v West Ham No Bet

26:25 Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Bet

27:25 Man City v Brentford No Bet

28:35 Aston Villa v Everton No Bet

29:46 Bournemouth v Chelsea Bet

31:20 Spurs v Arsenal Bet

32:39 Wolves v Newcastle No Bet

33:31 Recap

33:54 Outro

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Ted and Ravi start by discussing a controversial analytics take from someone that's a part of the community. Next, they talk about Chelsea's owner rift and the leaks that suggest a potential buyout may happen. They then get into discussion about Arsenal's injury situation with Martin Odegaard and Mikel Merino set to miss time. And finally, they wrap up with the MLS transfer window and all of the things that you need to know about that, including biggest additions and misses of the window.

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

01:48 - Is analytics for player recruitment solved?

03:18 - every action in football has 3 parts

04:40 - You don't have data for everything

06:15 - Difficulty at scale

07:30 - Different level of information impacting decision makers

09:48 - Evaluating players from lower leagues

11:53 - Player factors impact on transfer success

13:55 - Chelsea's ownership rift

16:13 - Boehly joined and isntantly became Interim Sporting Director

16:58 - Where this confidence comes from

17:43 - 2 captains driving the boat

19:52 - Football clubs run like investment funds

21:46 - Blitzer and Harris make co-ownership work

22:31 - Arsenal's injury situation

23:59 - Small point loses feel insurmountable

25:04 - What would a long-term Odegaard injury mean?

26:06 - Champions League format changes help

26:29 - September International break

29:18 - MLS window rules and time period

30:21 - MLS is paying real money

32:22 - Their offset window creates mismatches

33:45 - Josh Sargent example

35:17 - How MLS can fix this issue

35:58 - Extra problems that come with overseas transfers

37:48 - The profile of MLS Winter signings

38:28 - NWSL eliminating the draft

39:45 - MLS academies draining talent out of the draft

41:12 - Balancing International roster spots

42:13 - Big free agent signings - Giroud and Reus

42:50 - Discovery Lists

44:16 - Griezmann rumours

47:15 - MLS connection with South/Latin America

48:15 - Spurs weird deal for Johnny Cardoso

49:20 - More additions to the MLS this year

51:10 - Players the U.S. and Canada excel at creating

52:26 - Deals that fell through because of the deadline mismatches

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Ted and Ravi discuss the summer windows for Manchester United, Southampton, Tottenham, West Ham and Wolves. They start with United's expensive, but sensible, window and how their new signings may fit in the squad. Then comes newly promoted Southampton, who made additions at goalkeeper and to their defense in the hopes of staying up. Tottenham paid up for Dominic Solanke and Archie Gray, while West Ham spent too much on a number of different moves. Finally, we discuss Wolves window and what essentially feels like them playing the lottery.

Ugarte Newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/manuel-ugarte-manchester-united-transfer-rumours-analysis

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

0:36 Man United Overview

1:50 Man United Finishing Top 4

2:14 Squad Needing Change

2:59 Resisting Overpaying

3:58 Joshua Zirkzee

4:11 De Ligt

4:50 Too Many Ajax Players?

5:16 Overpaying For Leny Yoro

5:30 Window Review

6:37 Manuel Ugarte

8:00 United Outgoings

11:10 Southampton Overview

11:59 Aaron Ramsdale

12:31 Making Loans Permanent

13:02 Mateus Fernandes

13:40 Yukinari Sugawara

14:00 Brereton Diaz

15:02 Some Confusing Signings

15:40 Southampton Outgoings

15:51 Southampton Overall Grade

16:22 Spurs Overview

16:56 Dominic Solanke

18:30 Overpaying for youngsters?

19:46 Incomings Grade

19:52 Spurs Outgoings

21:38 West Ham Overview

22:30 Risky Transfer Strategy?

23:42 Niclas Fullkrug

26:19 Max Kilman

26:45: Jean-Claire Todibo

27:41 Wan-Bissaka &

28:09: West Ham Outgoings

28:42 Outgoing Grades

28:57 Wolves Overview

29:24 Wolves Outgoings

29:39 Andre

30:00 Sam Johnstone

30:23 Strand Larsen

31:36 Wolves Overall Grade

32:21 Outro

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On this episode, Ted and Ravi discuss the transfer windows for Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Newcastle, and Nottingham Forrest. They start with a confusing window for Leicester and move to Liverpool in their first window under Arne Slot. Next up is Manchester City, who made some good moves and got good value for Julian Alvarez. Then comes Newcastle, who had possibly the worst window of any team not named Chelsea. Finally, they discuss Nottingham Forest's VERY busy window.

Link to the newsletter for part 3:https://www.thetransferflow.com/p/liverpool-gearing-massive-changes

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

00:48 - Leicester City Inbounds

01:41 - Bilal El Khannouss

02:55 - Caleb Okoli and Odsonne Édouard

03:42 - Oliver Skipp and Harry Winks

05:06 - Facundo Buonanotte's loan

06:45 - Leicester's Overall Grade

07:02 - Using early games to predict relegation

09:13 - Liverpool's transition window

11:09 - Lack of new contracts for their 3 stars

15:00 - Long-term view vs. short/medium term

16:00 - When to move on from stars

17:45 - Salah changing his game as he ages

20:28 - The decision for TAA/ Real Madrid leveraging stars

22:15 - Zubimendi in January?

22:56 - Manchester City's Window and Sávio

23:30 - Gundogan joining from Barcelona

24:45 - Selling Julian Alvarez

26:47 - Madrid coming for Rodri?

27:58 - Newcastle's Window

28:13 - Their lone savior?

29:26 - Not overpaying for Marc Guehi

31:49 - Clubs that are good at extracting value for players

34:20 - Nottingham Forrest's busy window

35:43 - Evaluating their window on face value

36:33 - Inbound grade for Forest

37:32 - Did they solve their issues from last year?

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Chelsea's transfer window was a disaster, so make sure to listen until the end to hear our thoughts on what is probably the worst window for ANY club in many years. We're grading 5 teams in alphabetical order on the second episode of our offseason transfer grades, starting with Crystal Palace and their head-scratching decision to not sell Marc Guehi to Newcastle. Then, Everton's Poor window to go along with their lackluster start of the season. Next comes Fulham, who sold João Palhinha for 50m, but chose to reinvest some of that money into older players. And finally, before we go in on Chelsea, we touch on Ipswich's risky transfer strategy and how it sets them up for the future, even in they get relegated.

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Timestamps -

00:00 - Intro

02:06 - Crystal Palace's Window

02:42 - Failing to sell Marc Guehi

03:36 - 2 new centerbacks

04:04 - Oliver Glasner as manager

04:18 - Will Hughes

04:53 - Teams Scrambling to find a backup goalkeeper

05:18 - Joachim Andersen

05:53 - What will they get out of Eddie Nketiah?

07:38 - The Grade for Crystal Palace

08:09 - 5M for Jordan Ayew??

08:21 - Moving on to Everton

09:02 - Blowing a 2-0 lead in the 87'

09:40 - Jarrad Branthwaite and Jacob O'Brien

10:45 - Everton's struggles this window

12:27 - Their squad mismanagement

13:58 - Everton get their Grade

14:26 - Fulham's window

15:37 - 50M+ for João Palhinha and where they spent the money

16:39 - Spending money on older players

18:03 - Elite players can age gracefully

20:05 - Emile Smith-Rowe and Joachim Anderson

20:48 - Grades for Fulham

21:05 - Ipswich's window

22:12 - the need to change their playstyle

23:48 - Ed Sheeran and Taylor Swift

24:13 - The 3 options Ipswich had entering the Premier League

25:44 - Risky transfers that set them up for success

27:14 - Ipswich's lack of outgoings

27:51 - Chelsea's crazy window

28:41 - Ravi's biggest issue with Chelsea's window

30:11 - A fix for load management?

30:44 - Chelsea operating like an investment fund

33:33 - A huge risk on Pedro Neto

35:16 - Similarities to Barcelona

36:13 - Where Chelsea deserve credit

37:07 - Chelsea's assumptions make backfire

39:44 - How did Chelsea grade?

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Ted and Ravi discuss their transfer grades for Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Brighton and Brentford. We start with Arsenal, who made some solid signings this window, but failed to improve their attacking depth and we disagree a bit on the quality of the incoming transfers. We also grades for the next 4 Premier League teams in alphabetical order. Namely, Villa's PSR driven offseason and some good business by them in the offloading of Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby, but did the incomings substantially improve the Champions league team? Next, Bournemouth's big sale of Dominic Solanke and where they might replace his production. Finally, we finish with why we rated Brentford's window a mild success, and discuss how Brighton's aggressive approach might pay off for them. Enjoy!

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TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Intro

03:00 - Arsenal Discussion

04:3 - Arsenal's Grades

05:58 - Riccardo Calafiori and Ben White

06:28 - Mikel Merino

07:36 - Adding Sterling

08:24 - The need to improve the #9 position

09:00 - Osimhen allegedly offered to Arsenal

09:41 - Aston Villa Weirdness

11:34 - Ian Maatson

12:48 - The Jaden Philogene Saga

13:20 - Douglas Luiz and Moussa Diaby

15:10 - Villa Grade

15:18 - Bournemouth and their Stadium

16:10 - Offseason additions (players & staff)

19:10 - Replacing Dominic Solanke's Production

21:31 - Grades & Above average talent for Bournemouth is a win

22:33 - Brentford

22:42 - Selling Ivan Toney to Saudi and Fabio Carvalho

23:47 - Igor Thiago

27:56 - Jayden Meghoma

28:48 - Brentford Grades

29:13 - Brighton

30:11 - Brighton's Net Spend this window

31:48 - Not investing in their Academy

32:06 - Yankuba Minteh

32:44 - Mats Wieffer

34:48 - Fabian Hürzeler and the risk of a 31-year-old manager

37:46 - Challenging for CL spots?

38:49 - Brighton Grade

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