In this episode of the OPEX Effect, we take a look behind the scenes at options flows at what is going on in the options market as we head into the election. We cover: - The current options landscape leading into October expiration - How NVIDIA's performance continues to drive broader market trends - Analysis of volatility patterns and their implications for market movement - Detailed exploration of potential market reactions to the upcoming U.S. election - The mechanics behind post-election volatility crush and its effect on stock prices - Comparisons to previous election cycles and lessons learned - Discussion of the JP Morgan collar trade and its market influence - Insights on interpreting options flow data to anticipate market moves Whether you're an options trader, long-term investor, or simply interested in understanding market forces, this episode provides valuable perspectives on how options expiration and major events like elections can shape market behavior. Brent and Jack break down complex concepts into digestible insights, offering both technical analysis and practical takeaways for navigating the current market environment.

SPOTGAMMA'S NEW PRODUCT - TRACE THE MARKET https://spotgamma.com/trace-the-market-excess-returns/?aff=Excess DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://spotgamma.com/opex MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA ⁠https://www.spotgamma.com⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER ⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/spotgamma⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER ⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠

In this episode, we dive deep into the world of options and their impact on market dynamics. We start with an "Options Dealer Flows 101" primer, explaining key concepts like delta hedging, gamma, charm, and vanna to help viewers understand how options flows can drive stock prices. We then analyze the current market situation heading into the September 2024 options expiration, one of the biggest of the year. We explore the outsized influence of Nvidia options activity, discuss potential outcomes from the upcoming FOMC meeting, and examine how bond-equity correlations are shifting. We break down why understanding options flows is crucial even for long-term investors who don't trade options themselves. Using real-world examples, we illustrate how options positioning can create market volatility and reversals around key dates. Whether you're an options trader or just want to better understand what's moving markets, this episode provides valuable insights into the hidden forces shaping stock prices. Join us as we unpack the complex world of options and their far-reaching effects on the broader market. SPOTGAMMA'S NEW PRODUCT - TRACE THE MARKET https://spotgamma.com/trace-the-market-excess-returns/?aff=Excess DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK https://spotgamma.com/opex MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA ⁠https://www.spotgamma.com⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER ⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/spotgamma⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER ⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠

In this episode of OPEX Effect, we dive into the recent market volatility and its connection to options flows. We discuss the sudden VIX spike to 65, examining the factors that led to this extreme event, including low liquidity, the unwinding of correlation trades, and the impact of zero-day options. We explore how the market landscape has shifted, with a focus on the transition from inter-equity correlation to a broader bonds versus equities perspective. We also analyze the current options positioning and its implications for future market movements, particularly in light of upcoming economic data releases and events like Jackson Hole. Throughout the episode, we emphasize the importance of understanding options flows and market dynamics to make more informed investment decisions in these volatile times.

DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://spotgamma.com/opex

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.spotgamma.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/spotgamma⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠⁠

In this episode of the OPEX Effect, we explore the current market rally and discuss the concept of "correlation spasms" - unusual movements and relationships between market components. We examine record low volatility, the outsize impact of mega-cap tech stocks, and the recent surge in small-caps. We analyze the prevalence of zero days-to-expiry options trading and its effects on intraday volatility. We consider potential scenarios for how current market imbalances may unwind and highlight key indicators to watch around the upcoming options expiration. Our goal is to provide insight into the complex forces driving markets, helping long-term investors better understand and contextualize daily market moves, even if they don't actively trade based on these shorter-term dynamics.

DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK

⁠⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectjuly2024⁠⁠

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.spotgamma.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/spotgamma⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠

In this month's episode of the OPEX Effect, we take a deep dive into the world of options flows and their impact on the markets. We discuss the recent GameStop saga and the role options played in the stock's wild ride. We also explore the concept of volatility suppression, the dispersion between mega-cap tech stocks like NVIDIA and the rest of the market, and the record-breaking streak of low volatility in the S&P 500. Finally, we analyze the extreme bloat in NVIDIA's options complex and what it means for investors.

DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK

⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectjune2024⁠

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.spotgamma.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/spotgamma⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠

In this episode of the OpEx Effect, we discuss the current state of the market as we approach the May options expiration. We analyze the low levels of volatility and put demand, suggesting market participants are not too concerned about potential downside risks. We also examine the impact of key upcoming events, particularly the CPI report and NVIDIA earnings, and how they could influence market direction. Additionally, we explore the relationship between options activity and market sentiment and the importance of understanding these dynamics even for long-term investors.

DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK

⁠⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectmay2024.pd⁠f⁠⁠

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.spotgamma.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/spotgamma⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠⁠

In this episode of the OPEX Effect podcast, Brent Kochuba and Jack Forehand discuss the current market turmoil and its potential impact on options flows. They analyze how the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, coupled with rate volatility and the upcoming U.S. elections, is causing a shift in the market environment from a period of volatility suppression to one of increased volatility. The hosts examine various indicators, such as correlation, dispersion, and the VIX, to highlight the unwinding of previous market flows and the potential for a new volatility regime. They also discuss the implications of the VIX expiration occurring before the equity options expiration and how this could impact the market in the coming week.

DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK

⁠⁠https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectapril2024.pd⁠f⁠

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.spotgamma.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/spotgamma⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠

The OPEX Effect looks at the impact of options flows on the market from the perspective of longer-term investors. In each episode, we break down what is going on behind the scenes in the options market and how the resulting flows are moving markets.

In this episode, we take a deep dive into the March 2024 options expiration and its potential implications for the market. We discuss dealer positioning into the expiration, whether the call buying in the chip sector is showing signs of exhaustion, the relationship between gold and Bitcoin and forward stock returns, options positioning headed into Nvidia's upcoming major announcement and a lot more.

DOWNLOAD THE SLIDE DECK

⁠https://excessreturnspod.com/opexeffectmarch2024.pdf⁠

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT SPOTGAMMA

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.spotgamma.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW BRENT ON TWITTER

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/spotgamma⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW JACK ON TWITTER

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://twitter.com/practicalquant⁠