One thing seems clear these days: the polls aren’t very clear these days.

While there appears to be some indication of a Liberal uptick since Justin Trudeau’s resignation, there are big disagreements about just how big that uptick is. Not only is there a discrepancy in the federal polls, there are diverging polls in Ontario’s election campaign, too. Could the two be related — and just what can we say with any certainty?

We also take a look at the state of the Liberal leadership race and a new poll out of Quebec that has good news for the Bloc Québécois and Parti Québécois but, conversely, bad news for the Quebec sovereignty movement.

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Citing the need for a new, stronger mandate to take on Donald Trump’s tariffs, Doug Ford looks poised to call an Ontario election more than a year ahead of schedule. It’s a campaign that would play out while Justin Trudeau is still prime minister and Pierre Poilievre isn’t. Is this a smart political gambit for Ford’s PCs, or could it blow up in the premier’s face?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect the latest numbers out of Ontario — as well as some diverging trendlines at the federal level. One poll shows the Liberals surging. Is it an outlier or something new? Plus, we take a look at the federal Liberal leadership race and discuss whether or not this contest is Mark Carney’s to lose.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon. (https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod)

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the winnowing field of Liberal leadership contestants. We also discuss some new polling numbers that suggest the Conservatives have grown their support since Justin Trudeau announced he was resigning as prime minister.

Plus, is Doug Ford preparing to send Ontarians to the polls?

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.