Texas’ 34th District got national attention earlier this year when 36 year old republican and political newcomer Mayra Flores landed an upset victory in a close special election in a heavily Hispanic border district. This district stretches along the Texas Mexico border but then goes up along the Gulf coast and approaches near Corpus Christi from the south. The district Flores won in the upset this summer is a little more favorable than the map she is running in now. The old district was a Biden +4 and the new district is a Biden +15.4 point advantage however there are seats with as much as a 20 point advantage to Biden where republicans are currently competitive. The non white population of TX 34 is an astonishing 92.1% with the vast majority of that population being Hispanic.

For the GOP the incumbent candidate is the very impressive Mayra Flores, who was born in Mexico and moved here as a little girl. She is from the area and has worked as a respiratory therapist. She has four kids with her husband who is a border patrol agent. She was previously a democrat until shortly after Obama became president when she switched parties because of her pro life views. She often mentions how she was raised to put God and Family first.

Flores speaks fluent Spanish and uses this advantage to take her message directly to the Hispanic cpmmunity. She notes how the democrats have taken for granted their heavy latino support over the years and that their extreme views are out of step with what they believe “ the district is pro family, pro life and Pro God.” She says Hispanics are conservative, but fall into neither far left or far right label.  She tries to focus on the kitchen table issues that effect voters most, like the economy, border security and family values.

She has been the subject of racist attacks and has also been accused of being a Q anon supporter after using their hashtags, but explains that she was merely trying to reach their voters in a social media post and does not agree with their views.  In interviews Flores does an excellent job speaking in a down to earth manner, and while she is conservative she doesn’t come off as an ideologue.  

Flores is facing another member of congress in this race Vincente Gonzalez who has been in office since 2017. The new district map does bring some of gonzalez’ old district with him, fully 200,000 residents currently have him as their congressman. Prior to being a congressman, Gonzalez was a lawyer (primarily a civil litigator) a fact Flores has attacked him on for “defending criminals” although Cong. Gonzalez notes that criminal defense was a very small part of his practice.

On the issues Gonzalez tries to sound moderate in tone, and on some issues does vote with the GOP such as in opposing an assault weapons ban. He is however for red flag laws to prohibit gun purchases for domestic violence abusers.  He talks about the border as a major issue but downplays it in a way that Flores certainly does not. When asked about potential environmental issues for Space X (who has a HQ in the district) he mentioned making sure the company was doing everything right but one could tell the hard left environmentalism that has infected so much of his party, at the very least he lacks the enthusiasm for.

As a congressman he notes bringing $6 billion back to the district as one of the things he is proudest of. On abortion he sounds like a democrat from the 1990s focusing on women being forced to carry a child conceived in rape and noting that it should be “safe, legal and rare.” According to the almanac of American Politics his social issue voting record is 100% liberal on economic issues he is more mixed. He has voted with Joe Biden 97.3% of the time.

On the financial side of this race, Flores and Gonzalez are at near parity in both the spend battle and the cash on hand battle. In terms of cash on hand Gonzalez has $820k in the bank to Mayra Flores’ $799k. In the spend battle Gonzalez has a slight edge since the beginning of the year spending $3.3 million to Flores’ $2.495 million.

This race has been rated as a tossup by Fox News, the Cook Political report and by Real Clear Politics. FiveThirtyEight gives Gonzalez the narrowest edge possible in their models of 51 of 100 to Flores 49 of 100. There has been one poll in the race from early August where Gonzales had a 4 point lead 47-43 but was well short of the 49 or 50 percent that would give him some protection against independents breaking for Flores. Hopefully Flores can pull off yet another upset win this year.

This race features one of the most Hispanic districts in the country, the seat is located in the central valley, is just south of another highly competitive district we have covered the 13th (John Duarte vs Adam Gray). The district features Bakersfield, Delano, Tulare and Kettleman City as the main population centers. The district is 76% Hispanic and has been represented by a Republican since 2013. This really speaks to the coalitional shift happening around the country of the Hispanic population moving towards the GOP. David Valadao the republican however only won very narrowly two years ago by just over 500 votes.

Valadao took an unlikely path to political office, he is by trade a dairy farmer and when he was elected to a regional leadership council for, Land O Lakes for whom he is a supplier it whetted his appetite. He noticed from that perch how important government policies are in how they effect our lives. From there he won election to the state assembly in 2010. From there he won a new seat in 2012 to the US House finishing first in an all-party primary with 57% of the vote. Winning comfortably after the redistricting that cycle 58-42.

Valadao notes how he works to educate the Hispanic community he represents on why gas prices are high and how bad democrat policies are driving inflation. The continual climate change anti fossil fuel message also hits a brick wall in this district where a major business is oil and gas production. Valadao notes a little known fact that California has the 5th most gas reserves of any state in the country. He also does a good job hitting the left on their bad prioritization for green energy, explaining that many companies are now avoiding the state because their electrical grid is so unreliable.

Valadao has a pro life record that the democrats are trying to hit him on. He also sets himself apart for the moderates in the district as being one of only several reprublicans to vote in favor of impeaching president Trump the second time.  Despite that he voted with Trump 96.8% of the time and has only voted with Biden 26% of the time. Valadao supports comprehensive immigration reform and broke with other republicans to oppose the dismantling of the DACA program. He also broke ranks to vote against cuts to the food stamp program in 2013. He has been rated the 42nd most bipartisan member of the house.

Rudy Salas is the democrat challenger in this race. He is a 45 year old state assemblyman from Bakersfield who grew up in rougher neighborhoods. He has been active in political lif most of his adulthood. Starting out working as a district director for a state senator, in 2010 he was the first latino elected to the Bakersfield city council. Since then he has served as assemblyman for 10 years. In that role he is proudest of getting funds for an emergency center in Kings county as well as funds for a nursing program.

In the state house he was the only democrat to vote against an increase to the gas tax. He also criticizes Newsom saying he could’ve done a better job on Covid. Salas also boasts that he has been endorsed twice by the NRA. On climate change Salas sounds less insane than his democrat colleagues on the issue. Overall Salas has a good demeanor seems likable, and has a decent depth and comes off as knowledgeable on the issues, he tries to point to things he has actually done rather than speaking in generalities like lesser candidates.

On the financial side of the race the republican incumbent here is winning both the spend battle and the cash on hand battle. On the spend side David Valadao has outspent his opponent $1.95 million to $1.678 million since the beginning of the year. On the cash on hand battle Rudy Salas has only $517k to Valadao’s sizable $1.436 million.

Real Clear Politics, the Cook Political Report and Fox News all list this race in their tossup column. Despite two polls from July and August having Salas up, FiveThirtyEight gives Valadao the edge in their statistical models with him winning in 58 out of 100 models.