Today, we explore global energy through the lens of Russia, the world’s largest exporter of oil and gas. And to the west is Europe, which is heavily reliant on Russian gas supplies. According to some estimates, Russia is earning roughly $500 million per day on oil and another $400 million on gas all together.

But gas flows from Russia to Europe were already declining into the Q4 heating season last year. Flows flattened out earlier this year, and are  now ticking downward.

To help us understand the Russia/EU gas market, we turn to Nadia Kazakova, an analyst at Renaissance Energy Advisors (REA). Nadia is an expert in this field with prior roles at JP Morgan and Saxo Bank. She also provides in depth analysis on operating stats from Gazprom, Russia’s majority state-owned energy company.

On this show, we discussed:

• Russia’s importance in the global and EU oil and gas markets
• The buildup of gas fields and a vast pipeline network from Siberia and throughout Eastern Europe
• Gazprom's growing influence on EU gas supply, and its efforts to go downstream to capture additional margin
• The significance of Gazprom's November export cut to the EU, stemming from the Nordstream pipeline debacle
• Supply mix from Norway, Algeria and US LNG
• Expectations for further export reductions from Gazprom, below its annual output target
• The new system of ruble payments – its complexity and implications for sanctions and long-term contracts
• New evidence that Gazprom is already cutting back volumes to non-compliant customers
• Future price stabilization or volatility, and what to monitor going forward