In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, investor Hunter Craig sits down with the insightful Professor Edwin T. Burton of the University of Virginia to discuss the latest trends in the debt market, including the dramatic swings in U.S. Treasury yields. The conversation breaks down the complexities of supply and demand in economics, rising interest rates, and their implications on real estate and global markets.

From debunking myths about interest rate inversion to understanding the historical context of high yields, Professor Burton delivers clarity and actionable insights for investors and enthusiasts alike. Whether you’re curious about inflation’s impact on real estate or the Fed’s potential moves, this episode equips you with the knowledge to navigate the evolving economic landscape.

Topics Covered

• Why U.S. Treasury yields are climbing and what it means for investors
• How inflation and interest rates influence real estate valuations
• The role of supply and demand in economic fluctuations
• Understanding “flight to quality” during market turbulence
• Historical perspective: Mortgage rates in the 1980s vs. today

About Our Guest

Professor Edwin T. Burton is a seasoned economist and former Wall Street executive with decades of experience analyzing economic trends. As a professor at the University of Virginia, he bridges academic knowledge and practical expertise to shed light on complex economic topics. His optimism and deep understanding of historical and modern economics make his insights invaluable to listeners.

Disclaimer:

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton to unpack the latest shifts in the economic landscape. They delve into the Federal Reserve’s recent decision to lower the federal funds rate and its ripple effects on treasury yields, interest rates, and inflation. From the complexities of short-term treasury bill markets to the pressing issues surrounding the U.S. national debt and entitlement spending, this conversation illuminates the intricate connections shaping today’s economy.

Topics Discussed:

•The Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates: implications and motivations.

•The relationship between treasury yields, repo markets, and federal funds rates.

•Why short-term treasury yields are dropping while long-term yields climb.

•A detailed explanation of the “flight to quality” and its impact on bond markets.

•The growing national debt: Can the U.S. solve its deficit without addressing healthcare and Social Security?

•Insights into the private healthcare system and the inefficiencies of the current insurance model.

•Predictions for the economy, stock market, and interest rates in 2025.

More About Dr. Edwin T. Burton

Dr. Edwin T. Burton is a distinguished professor of economics at the University of Virginia, specializing in finance with a focus on behavioral finance and the theory of financial markets. He has held senior roles on Wall Street and has been a leading figure in public service as the longest-standing trustee of the Virginia Retirement System. Dr. Burton’s popular finance courses at UVA have educated thousands of students, and he continues to provide sought-after insights at high-profile events. His publications, including Behavioral Finance, underscore his expertise in understanding complex economic systems.

Key Takeaways:

•Market Dynamics: Treasury yields, repo rates, and federal funds rates are tightly interlinked, and the Federal Reserve’s influence is limited by market forces.

•Flight to Quality: Investors’ concerns over rising interest rates drive demand for short-term treasuries while pushing long-term yields higher.

•Debt and Deficits: Without addressing healthcare and Social Security reform, the national debt crisis will continue to worsen.

•Healthcare Reform: The inefficiencies in healthcare insurance and overutilization of services contribute significantly to the ballooning national debt.

•Economic Forecast: A cautious outlook for the economy, with concerns about higher interest rates and stock market performance in the near future.

Further Resources:

•Priceless by John Goodman – An in-depth look at the inefficiencies in the American healthcare system.

Disclaimer:

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

Connect with Us:

Have thoughts on today’s episode or questions about the economy? Email us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com and subscribe to stay informed about future episodes!

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to decode the complexities of current economic policies and trends. In this episode, they explore the Federal Reserve’s behavior as a follower of market trends, the implications of shifting political agendas, and emerging concerns about AI and Bitcoin as economic bubbles. Professor Burton provides an insightful take on what lies ahead for the U.S. economy in 2025, making this episode a must-listen for anyone trying to navigate the evolving financial landscape.

Key Topics Discussed

• The Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut and why it’s following the Treasury bill market
• How shifting political agendas from Biden to Trump could reshape key economic sectors
• Economic red flags: weakening indicators and policy-driven industry changes
• The potential bubble effect in AI and Bitcoin markets
• Understanding money supply, inflation, and how interest rates trigger economic movement

Financial Disclaimer

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is essential to conduct your own research.

More About Dr. Edwin T. Burton

Dr. Edwin T. Burton is a distinguished professor of economics at the University of Virginia, specializing in finance with a focus on behavioral finance and the theory of financial markets. He has held senior roles on Wall Street and has been a leading figure in public service as the longest-standing trustee of the Virginia Retirement System. Dr. Burton’s popular finance courses at UVA have educated thousands of students, and he continues to provide sought-after insights at high-profile events. His publications, including Behavioral Finance, underscore his expertise in understanding complex economic systems.

Stay Connected

Subscribe to The Rubber Meets the Road Economics Podcast to stay updated on the decisions shaping our economic future. Share your thoughts and join the conversation by emailing us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com.

Investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to explore the forces driving today’s economic landscape. Together, they delve into the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decisions, the impact of tariffs on trade and manufacturing, and the complexities of government spending and national debt. Dr. Burton’s insights shine a light on critical economic policies and their implications for businesses, communities, and everyday citizens.

• The Federal Reserve’s likely 25 basis point rate cut and its impact on the economy

• Tariffs as a policy tool and their consequences for U.S. manufacturing

• Economic disparities and strategies for community revitalization

• The relationship between government spending, GDP, and the national deficit

The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is essential to conduct your own research.

Dr. Edwin T. Burton is a distinguished professor of economics at the University of Virginia, specializing in finance with a focus on behavioral finance and the theory of financial markets. He has held senior roles on Wall Street and has been a leading figure in public service as the longest-standing trustee of the Virginia Retirement System. Dr. Burton’s popular finance courses at UVA have educated thousands of students, and he continues to provide sought-after insights at high-profile events. His publications, including Behavioral Finance, underscore his expertise in understanding complex economic systems.

Subscribe to The Rubber Meets the Road Economics podcast to gain insights into the decisions shaping our economic future.

Share your thoughts and join the conversation HERE or by emailing us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com.

In this episode, Hunter Craig sits down with renowned economics professor Dr. Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to explore complex yet pressing issues in the U.S. economy. Together, they tackle the roots and realities of the U.S. debt crisis, the complications of the healthcare system, the limitations of Social Security, and the true impact of infrastructure spending on economic growth. Dr. Burton brings clarity to these critical topics, providing a deep dive into how economic policies shape everyday lives, as well as the constraints on solving these challenges through traditional means. From healthcare reform to Social Security alternatives, this episode digs into the policies that could change the financial future of America.

Episode Highlights:

• Understanding the U.S. Debt Problem: Dr. Burton explains why simply cutting spending or raising taxes won’t fix the national debt, highlighting the challenges of high marginal tax rates and limited spending options.
• Healthcare System Issues: Discussing the inherent flaws in U.S. healthcare, Dr. Burton argues for a system driven by individual accountability and market forces, where insurance is reserved for catastrophic events rather than everyday healthcare expenses.
• Rethinking Social Security: With stark insights into Social Security’s financial limitations, Dr. Burton makes the case for mandatory IRAs as a sustainable alternative for Americans’ retirement, emphasizing wealth creation over entitlement payouts.
• Infrastructure Spending and Economic Growth: Questioning the efficacy of government infrastructure spending, Dr. Burton outlines the pitfalls of politically-driven projects and the inadequacy of growth alone to solve systemic financial issues.

Quotes from Dr. Burton:

1. “People are at the breaking point with taxes—raising them won’t solve our debt crisis.”
2. “In the U.S., we’re spending more on healthcare than any other developed country, yet our outcomes are worse.”
3. “Social Security is a terrible system; it creates no wealth and leaves no legacy for one’s family.”
4. “You can’t drive the bus with economic growth alone—there’s a limit to how much can be government-driven.”
5. “Government is not very good at providing healthcare, and for those who think it is—good luck.”

Takeaways: Dr. Burton’s commentary sheds light on the foundational flaws of current U.S. economic structures, stressing the need for reform in healthcare and Social Security and cautioning against over-reliance on infrastructure spending as an economic solution. His views challenge listeners to rethink policy assumptions and envision more sustainable economic frameworks.

Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

Stay Connected: If you enjoyed today’s episode, remember to subscribe and follow for more insights into the forces shaping our economy.

Do you have a question that you'd like Professor Burton to answer? Send us a message, and you may hear it on an upcoming Rubber Meets the Road Economics Podcast episode.

In this episode of The Rubber Meets the Road Economics, investor Hunter Craig sits down with Professor Edwin T. Burton from the University of Virginia to analyze the current economic landscape and the factors driving interest rates, inflation, and U.S. debt levels. They dive into the Fed’s anticipated rate adjustments, the impact of election outcomes on Treasury yields, and a masterclass in game theory as applied to economic decision-making.

Professor Burton breaks down complex economic concepts into practical insights, exploring everything from real estate buying strategies to the famous three-door problem in game theory. If you're interested in understanding how economic policies might impact your finances, tune in for a grounded, no-nonsense perspective on the economy’s road ahead.

Key Topics Discussed

• The Fed’s likely rate cut and the expected reduction in the prime rate
• The relationship between short-term and long-term yields and implications for mortgages
• The significance of the rising yield on the 10-year Treasury note and its ties to U.S. debt levels
• Game theory applications in real estate and market behavior
• Explanation of the three-door problem in probability and decision-making

Financial Disclaimer The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend consulting a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is essential to conduct your own research.

More about Dr. Edwin T. Burton

Dr. Edwin T. Burton is a distinguished professor of economics at the University of Virginia, specializing in finance, with a particular focus on behavioral finance and the theory of financial markets. His academic career began in 1969, and he has held faculty positions at Cornell University and UVA since 1988. He has also been a key figure on Wall Street, holding senior roles at Smith Barney, Rothschild Financial Services, and Interstate Johnson Lane Corporation.

At UVA, Burton’s courses on finance are among the most popular in the Economics Department, where he has taught thousands of students over his career. In addition to his academic work, he has been deeply involved in public service, serving as the longest-standing trustee of the Virginia Retirement System and holding the position of chairman from 1997 to 2001.

Beyond his academic and professional contributions, Dr. Burton has authored multiple books on finance, with his latest being Behavioral Finance, published in 2014. His broad expertise makes him a sought-after speaker on economic issues, and he regularly presents at high-profile events.

UVA Arts & Sciences

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In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Hunter Craig and Professor Edwin T. Burton dive into the potential economic crisis that may be on the horizon. They explore key economic signals like the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cuts, the rise in Treasury yields, and the impact on mortgage rates. Together, they analyze whether these indicators point to an impending financial downturn and what it means for everyday Americans. Professor Burton sheds light on how market forces dictate these economic shifts and offers a candid view of the Fed’s role, suggesting that it often follows market trends rather than leading them.

Key Topics:

• The Federal Reserve’s September rate cut and why it happened.
• How Treasury bill yields impact Federal Reserve policies.
• The role of supply and demand in driving mortgage rates higher.
• The rising divide between wealthy Americans benefiting from asset inflation and the struggles of working-class citizens.
• Why rent control policies may hurt those they're intended to help.
• A candid discussion on inflation, government debt, and what it all means for the future of the U.S. economy.

Quotes from the Episode:

1. “The market determines rates, not the Federal Reserve.”
2. “Inflation isn’t just a number; it’s the value of money dropping.”
3. “If supply goes up 50%, and demand stays the same, the value drops—simple economics.”
4. “The Fed’s role is more reactionary than most people realize.”
5. “Rent control sounds good but ultimately freezes out low-income people from communities.”

Financial Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.

About Professor Edwin Burton: Dr. Edwin T. Burton is a professor of economics at the University of Virginia, specializing in finance, with a focus on behavioral finance and the theory of financial markets. A distinguished academic and former Wall Street executive, Professor Burton earned his PhD from Northwestern University, studying under renowned mathematical economist Hirofumi Uzawa. He has held senior roles at Smith Barney and other major financial institutions and has taught at UVA since 1988. Professor Burton's extensive expertise makes him a leading authority on public policy, finance, and economics.

In this episode of Rubber Meets the Road Economics, Hunter Craig welcomes back Professor Edwin Burton to dive into the U.S. debt crisis, Federal Reserve policies, and interest rates. Professor Burton draws on his extensive academic background and professional experience to offer an insightful analysis of the U.S. economy’s trajectory. Together, they discuss the implications of the $35 trillion national debt, the potential for higher interest rates, and whether the U.S. is heading toward an economic disaster.

Key Discussion Points:

• The significance of U.S. national debt climbing to $35 trillion and its future projections.
• Professor Burton's educational background, including his PhD from Northwestern University and his experience studying under renowned economists.
• The role of U.S. Treasury yields in predicting Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
• Why corporate bond sales are signaling economic caution and what that means for the future.
• The limitations of modern monetary theory and its impact on inflation.
• How government debt and spending are driving inflation and affecting individual savings rates.
• What lessons can be learned from the debt crises in other countries, like Argentina and the Weimar Republic.

About Professor Edwin Burton: Dr. Edwin T. Burton is a professor of economics at the University of Virginia, specializing in finance, with a focus on behavioral finance and the theory of financial markets. A distinguished academic and former Wall Street executive, Professor Burton earned his PhD from Northwestern University, studying under renowned mathematical economist Hirofumi Uzawa. He has held senior roles at Smith Barney and other major financial institutions, and has taught at UVA since 1988. Professor Burton's extensive expertise makes him a leading authority on public policy, finance, and economics.

Connect with Us:

• Subscribe and leave us a review on your favorite podcast platform
• Share your thoughts with us at rubbermeetstheroadeconomicspod@gmail.com

Disclaimer: The information provided on this podcast is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as financial advice and should not be relied upon as such. All opinions expressed by the hosts, guests, or participants are solely their own and do not reflect the views of any companies or organizations they may be affiliated with. We recommend that you consult with a qualified financial professional before making any financial decisions. Remember, investing and financial decisions carry risks, and it is important to do your own research.