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Is there anything predictable about the stock market? If so, how much power or truth does it hold? Do sophisticated models and strategies have a predictive edge? Even if you’re an investor with limited experience, the odds are at least one of these questions has piqued your interest at some point in your investing career.

In episode 43, Greg discusses predictability in ETF income and dividend growth. He examines various ETFs tracking the S&P 500, such as SPY, IVV, and VOO, highlighting discrepancies in their dividend growth rates from year to year. Greg emphasizes the importance of not making investment decisions based solely on headline numbers, as these may not tell the full story. The episode also explores the limitations of discounted cash flow models, touching on the challenges of long-term forecasts and the uncertainties of market competition. Ultimately, he advises investors to focus on understanding what they own and cautions against overly sophisticated financial models that may introduce more risk and uncertainty.

00:00 Introduction to The Dividend Mailbox
00:46 Understanding ETF Predictability
01:46 Analyzing S&P 500 Dividend Growth
04:09 Comparing Different S&P 500 ETFs
10:49 Exploring the S&P 100 and Other Indexes
16:57 The Complexity of Enhanced Income ETFs
24:27 The Power and Pitfalls of Predictability
25:46 Diving into Discounted Cash Flow Models
31:13 The Terminal Value Trap
38:53 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

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