• Fleeting competition for gold
• Gold strength continues despite dollar range, elevated rates, and low vol
• Silver can catch up

Options Markets point to risk-on with a higher VIX through year-end. In China, right tail is bid. The AI rotation may benefit China and, derivatively, Europe.

• The Fed is data driven, is the bond market?
• What usually calms the market?
• What will calm this market?

• Third derivative has impacted market structure
• Who bailed out short vol and dispersion traders?
• Bonds did their job, but do they have the juice to do it again?
• Will Dual Goldilocks prevail?

Josh and Michael discuss whether the Rotation Trade is sustainable, if Russell is the right bedfellow and if thematic pairs trades are riskier than long indices.

• Collecting equity risk premium is profitable
• Inflation after November 5th
• Insurance is cheap!

Josh and Michael discuss how FX volatility is not reflecting the same political concerns as French bonds, skew as a better indicator of risk than volatility in FX and how the VIX is low but the IV-RV spread is high in the US.

Josh Silva and Michael Purves tackle both ends of the curve - the MOVE and VIX “sell (VOL) in May and go away” - a dovish fiscal policy.