Let's look at the tools that futurists use to develop strategic foresight and try and think of the ways that they might be used by regulators, industry incumbents and by entrepreneurs in the context of AI and blockchain advancements.

00:00 Future trends and scanning methods

00:30 Horizon scanning

06:46 The Delphi Method

09:09 Scenario Planning

10:49 Backcasting

13:56 How might these techniques be used?

14:41 What levers are available?

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS WEEK THERE ARE TWO VIDEOS PREPARED BY OTHERS THAT CAN'T BE PROVIDED AS PODCASTS THAT ARE INCORPORATED INTO THE LECTURES. Please go to Canvas to find them.

As we often do, the purpose of this recording is to make sure we're all on the same page when it comes to the language that we're using.

00:00 Begin

01:35 Some important terms

01:55 Presentation Paused

09:00 Foresight process and methodology

17:13 Gartner Hype cycle

21:58 ADM

22:30 Future trends and scanning methods

00:00 Regulation as a multimodal concept

00:24 Code and other laws of cyberspace

05:31 AI, Blockchain, and code as law…

11:42 Pathetic dot theory

12:35 Hypothetical: AI recruitment tool

14:37 Hypothetical: Blockchain based supply chain solution

18:04 Questions?

[00:00:00] Permissionless innovation allows for new technology development without regulatory approval, promoting faster growth but potentially leading to unforeseen consequences. Legal considerations for AI, Big Data, and blockchain should balance minimizing regulations to promote innovation with ensuring appropriate use.

[00:02:19] Recommends reading Theirer's arguments on precautionary principle vs permissionless innovation in emerging technologies, including IoT, AI, big data, blockchain. Precautionary principle means holding back until proven safe, while permissionless innovation allows experimentation unless potential harm is compellingly demonstrated.

[00:03:52] Legal landscape varies by country, with socialist or communist countries favoring precautionary laws to protect people and values, while Western democratic countries favor permissionless innovation and business growth, with regulation developed if policies are not working. (Risking over simplification)

[00:06:12] Discusses the ideological differences between left-wing and right-wing perspectives on government involvement in regulating innovation and protecting individuals, and suggests that you should determine your own values in order to understand and engage in these debates.

[00:08:30] Theirer argues against a precautionary mindset in public policy, stating that it inhibits innovation and growth. He also believes that mistakes and occasional failures are necessary for wisdom and growth, and not all ethical or best practice principles make wise policies.

[00:09:50] Solutions to social problems should be organic and bottom-up, reasons that Theirer argues that the permissionless innovation approach is better than precautionary principle, burden of proof should be on those in favor of controls.

[00:11:12] Discusses the concept of burden of proof. Theirer suggests that the burden of proof should be on those proposing regulations and permissionless innovation should be the default policy.

[00:15:31] Finding and understanding law online has been made easier with AI advancements and policy changes, compared to early limitations on the use of ARPAnet.

[00:17:10] Theirer argues policymakers can't influence cultural attitudes for entrepreneurship. Growth-oriented innovation policy requires tolerance towards the unfamiliar. Further he argues that the intention behind the development of a technology isn't relevant for its use, limiting regulation may hinder its potential. Read the IoT case study on page 18 of chapter one.

[00:18:45] Cath's view? Policymakers should encourage IoT growth for faster technological revolution, despite potential negative impacts, and discuss regulation in future videos.

[00:00:00] Regulation of emerging technologies, specifically AI, big data, and blockchain, balancing innovation and protection, refers to the table in Canvas.

[00:01:38] Quick explainer of some key terms; moral hazard in asymmetric information in business explained with a lawyer example.

[00:06:00] Regulation is key in ensuring fair distribution of benefits from technology, protecting vulnerable groups, and informing business decisions for future regulation.

[00:09:50] Legislation can override common law. Regulations are necessary for protecting business and community interests and maintaining competitive economies. Governments must balance regulation with policy outcomes.

[00:11:37] Australia claims to have strong regulation in place, but whether it is effective or not depends on political views and values. Striking the right balance between regulation and innovation is challenging due to the rapid pace of technological advancement. Regulations can become outdated quickly as business models change.

[00:13:38] Regulating new technologies can hinder business growth and innovation, but disruptive models also displace established firms and products, changing work and offering benefits.

[00:16:17] Balancing regulation to enable AI and blockchain development while ensuring societal wellbeing is critical. Recognizing problems and gaps in existing regulations is necessary before intervening for public safety and environmental concerns.

[00:22:45] Regulation effectiveness can be evaluated and improved through compliance rates, impact assessment, feedback, and updates. National Blockchain Roadmap is an example of a policy that influences blockchain regulation, but there's still progress to be made. When assessing policy roadmaps, consider objectives and goals.

[00:24:10] Consider relevance, stakeholders, resources, compliance, accountability, implementation, and evaluation when looking at blockchain policy goals. Also, read Weimer and Marin's article on regulating new technologies.

[00:26:42] The article discusses the challenges of regulating new technology in the European Union and emphasizes the importance of trust for effective regulation. The text also introduces a special issue of a journal focused on interdisciplinary research on law and regulation for emerging technologies.

00:00 Introduction

01:07 BUT…..

01:14 Practical considerations

09:06 High levels of uncertainty….

12:52 CityDAO

16:44 Some things to look for in the reading: Moore (2021)

20:54 Some things to look for in the reading: Gomez (2022)

21:32 Questions? Concerns? Frustrations? Compliments?

Much of this recording focuses on The DAO hack and the Ethereum Fork of 2016. At the beginning I say it will be the last video, but clearly I misjudged time so there is another one to come.

00:00 Introduction

00:01 DAOs

03:32 What are the potential risks?

10:39 Environmental impact....

11:40 Case Study – The DAO Hack in 2016

21:08 SEC response 25 July 2017

00:00 Similarities & differences between DAOs and other (Australian) entities or structures

00:26 Important questions

03:20 Comparison

09:55 Making decisions…

12:09 Senate Select Committee on Australia as a Technology and Financial Centre (2021):

18:38 DAO model law Coalition of Automated Legal Applications (COALA)

19:58 The Australian Government agreed with this recommendation in principle…

21:10 Australian Law Reform Commission (October 2022)

27:03 Principles based approach

27:36 Up next... Ethical & Risk Considerations