How do market strategists assess their predictions and refine their strategies for the future?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, reflect on 2024's market outcomes. They explore what they anticipated correctly, where they misjudged, and how these insights shape their 2025 outlook.

They also highlight the key drivers behind market performance, emphasizing transparency and adaptability in strategy.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The impact of a Santa Claus rally that failed to materialize and its implications for short-term market sentiment
• The contributions of earnings growth, dividends, and multiple expansion to the S&P 500's 25% total return in 2024
• Their successful forecast of Federal Reserve rate cuts and their influence on economic stability
• The underperformance of small and mid-cap stocks despite positive expectations and the need to adapt to market shifts
• The strong performance of U.S. equities over international stocks, driven by relative economic strength and a resilient dollar
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

How can advisors truly thrive in their personal and professional lives? Dr. Phil Pearlman brings a refreshing perspective, blending psychology, health, and financial strategy to empower advisors to achieve peak performance.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, sit down with Dr. Phil Pearlman, Founder of the Pearl Institute, to explore actionable strategies for enhancing well-being, overcoming modern challenges, and optimizing decision-making.

Dr. Pearlman shares insights on building healthier habits, combating distractions, and fostering meaningful connections in an ever-demanding profession.

Dr. Pearlman discusses:

• How to tackle phone addiction and reclaim time for personal growth and relationships
• Simple steps advisors can take to improve health and performance, including dietary and physical activity tips
• Strategies for setting and maintaining achievable goals for long-term success
• The importance of focusing on individual progress over external comparisons to combat FOMO and enhance satisfaction
• Insights on leveraging psychological flexibility to quit bad habits and make more effective decisions
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Dr. Phil Pearlman:

• Email: ppearlman@gmail.com
• LinkedIn: Philip Pearlman
• X: @ppearlman
• Website: Dr. Phil Pearlman
• Website: Pearl Institute

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

About Our Guest:

Phil launched Pearl Institute to help people live healthier, perform better, and make wise decisions. Previously, he spent years serving as an executive in both finance and media. Phil lives with his wife and two boys in Montebello, New York.

The market is navigating a period of heightened uncertainty, but key insights from this latest discussion will shed light on what's driving sentiment and expectations.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze the recent Fed meeting, market reactions, and what’s coming for 2025.

They explore the context of inflation fears, shifts in economic projections, and the broader implications of monetary policy, offering perspectives on why a recession might not be imminent despite challenges.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift and its impact on market sentiment, including fears of prolonged rate cuts and inflation risks
• Historical market trends, including the significance of the Santa Claus rally and potential warning signs for the coming year
• How inflation metrics like shelter and financial services charges influence overall inflation perceptions and the Fed’s response
• Strong economic indicators such as income growth outpacing inflation and their role in sustaining consumer spending and economic resilience
• The political and economic uncertainties shaping 2025, including rate cuts, tax policies, and market growth potential
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Inflation concerns are widespread, but are they justified?

Economic trends suggest that the narrative of persistently high inflation may be overblown.

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, analyze the nuances of current inflation data and its implications for investors and the broader economy.

They discuss why inflation is less of a concern than widely believed, explore consumer strength, and offer insights into the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy.

Ryan and Sonu talk about:

• The recent market trends, including stock movements, Santa Claus rallies, and why market sentiment remains resilient despite fluctuations
• The misconceptions surrounding "sticky" inflation, emphasizing the lagging impact of shelter and auto insurance data
• The Federal Reserve's policy decisions, including upcoming rate cuts and their implications for the market
• The resilience of the U.S. consumer, supported by strong balance sheets, rising disposable income, and robust retail sales growth
• China's economic shifts, including its dominance in automobile manufacturing and its global impact on manufacturing trends and oil demand
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Market sentiment is shifting, and the conversation is abuzz with optimism.

What drives these changes, and how should investors prepare for potential volatility ahead?

In this episode, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, unveil the surprising rally in the market, factors influencing the shift in sentiment, and the prospects for the coming year. They explore trends in employment, the economy, and the impact of monetary policy changes on investors' strategies.

Ryan and Sonu discuss:

• The market's transition from bearish to bullish sentiment after consecutive strong years of returns, emphasizing shifting sentiment among prominent analysts
• The labor market's mixed signals, including steady job creation, rising unemployment rates, and slowing hiring trends
• Potential implications of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the broader economic impact, including risks of prolonged pauses in cuts
• The resurgence of small-cap stocks and their potential to outperform amid favorable economic growth expectations
• Global economic risks, including political instability in key regions and their potential impact on the U.S. dollar and broader markets.
• And more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Are today’s markets walking a tightrope?

Balancing optimism with caution, Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, is joined by Barry Gilbert, VP of Wealth Management, to tackle three key market concerns in this thought-provoking episode of Facts vs. Feelings.

They examine the complexities of policy risks, tariffs, and valuations, offering insights to help investors navigate today’s market uncertainties.

This conversation delivers actionable strategies to help you manage uncertainty, stay diversified, and make sense of today’s market challenges. Whether navigating fiscal and monetary policy decisions, understanding global trends, or debating valuations, this conversation has something for every investor.

Key Highlights:

• Policy Risks: Federal Reserve rate decisions remain a wildcard, potentially impacting housing, business investments, and broader economic growth
• Trade and Tariffs: Tariff rhetoric and policy shifts could nudge inflation and alter market sentiment—but are they long-term threats or one-time adjustments
• Stock Valuations: U.S. markets continue trading at high valuations (e.g., 22x forward PE), raising questions about sustainability and investor sentiment
• Global Perspectives: Growth stories in India and Japan contrast with U.S. workforce trends, offering a broader view of opportunities and challenges
• Why It Matters: Understanding these risks could help investors stay grounded and focused on long-term goals despite short-term noise
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com
• Reasons to Be Thankful (Ep. 111)

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Barry Gilbert:

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA
• Carson Wealth

Surprising economic growth, falling inflation, and financial wins—what’s not to be thankful for?

On this gratitude-filled episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, reflect on the moments, milestones, and market trends that make this year one to celebrate. Guest Barry Gilbert, VP of Wealth Management, joins to spotlight the U.S. economy’s surprising resilience.

This release explores the drivers of today’s strong markets and their year-end outlook, from economic growth and moderating inflation to personal triumphs and professional gratitude. The hosts also share practical strategies for staying diversified and grounded in fundamentals while embracing gratitude as a mindset for success.

Key Highlights:

• Economic Resilience: GDP growth outpaces expectations at 2.8–2.9%, driven by productivity gains and entrepreneurship
• Inflation Trends: Thanksgiving dinner costs drop 5% year-over-year, reflecting gradual inflation moderation
• Stock Market Rally: The S&P 500 gains ~20% for the second year, with financials leading sector growth
• Year-End Momentum: December’s historical strength and profit margins show continued market optimism
• Investment Insights: Diversify portfolios and focus on earnings fundamentals to prepare for long-term growth
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Connect with Barry Gilbert:

• LinkedIn: Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA
• Carson Wealth

With interest rates climbing to historic highs, is the economy teetering on the brink—or are opportunities waiting in the wings?

This week on Facts vs. Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist at Carson Group, assess the far-reaching effects of rising rates on the economy and markets.

Ryan and Sonu examine how these trends reshape investment opportunities, from skyrocketing mortgage rates—eroding housing affordability—to sector rotations in the S&P 500. They reveal why inflation might be cooling faster than official data suggests, the surprising resilience of consumer strength, and whether the Fed’s cautious “wait-and-see” approach hints at a future policy shift.

Tune in as the duo also explores market dynamics, uncovers the lessons of the 1995 Greenspan era, and discusses how high productivity could provide a unique opportunity for rate cuts without economic stagnation!

Key Highlights:

• Interest Rate Dynamics: Higher mortgage rates (7–8%) squeeze affordability, but construction jobs remain surprisingly steady
• Sector Performance: Financials, energy, and industrials shine as tech and healthcare face setbacks
• Inflation Trends: Real-time data suggests cooling inflation and calming food and grocery prices
• Fed’s Position: Powell’s cautious “wait-and-see” strategy faces criticism for focusing on outdated inflation metrics
• Geopolitical Risks: A strong dollar and global conflicts pressure markets, making diversification essential
• Productivity Gains: High productivity offers hope for wage growth without spiking inflation
• Investment Outlook: Stay diversified and monitor high-growth tech and renewable energy opportunities
• And much more!

Resources:

• Any questions about the show? Send it to us! We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Connect with Ryan Detrick:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu Varghese:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese