Happy New Year. After a two week break, which seems like an eternity in ecommerce, we're back and raring to go.

To kick-off 2025, we're looking at the broader economic picture and the intersection between macro events and ecommerce strategy, assessing the key trends we think will shape the ecommerce industry this year and which ecommerce teams need to be planning for.

We've pulled out 5 factors that we think will have the greatest macro impact on ecommerce businesses.

1. Mortgages and interest rates
2. Inflation
3. Stronger wage growth
4. Trump’s tariffs
5. Global supply chains

And then explore 6 key trends that arise from the current economic situation:

1. Cross border commerce
2. Loyalty & referrals
3. Content and top of funnel become more important
4. Technology consolidation
5. Flexible payments
6. Returns As A Service (RaaS)

Key takeaways:

• Understanding macroeconomic factors helps shape marketing strategies.
• The economic outlook in UK & US is slightly more positive than 2024 but still cost pressures on many households.
• Consumer confidence is crucial for driving discretionary spending.
• Premium & luxury brands are better insulated from the impact of shopping patterns due to rising costs.

• Tariffs will significantly impact supply chain costs and operations.
• Flexibility in supply chains is necessary to mitigate supply chain volatility.
• Investing in inventory management is essential for ecommerce success.
• Loyalty programs should focus on building long-term customer relationships.
• Community engagement enhances brand loyalty and customer retention.
• Buy now, pay later options can improve conversion rates if communicated effectively.

• Ecommerce brands should explore less competitive international markets for growth.