As many of you know, there is no Fed meeting this month. As such, it would be reasonable to assume that we wouldn’t have Lundy Wright on the podcast because he’s the expert we turn to when it comes to analyzing the latest meeting.

However, as you may have noticed, a recent spat of economic numbers has put a real question mark over the prospect of rate cuts any time soon. If not flipped, the script has certainly been ruffled. So, we asked Lundy to come on and provide his latest views on where things stand and what factors he’s watching ahead of the March Fed meeting.

Please check important disclosures at the end of the episode.

This episode was recorded on Wednesday, February 21st after the market close.

Timestamps:

• Does Lundy think that seasonal factors have skewed January data, including Core CPI? [5:16]
• What is the r-star rate and why does Lundy refer to it as “mythical nonsense”? [8:55]
• Could the supply of Treasuries that will come to market counter economic stimulus? [17:39]
• What is Lundy anticipating ahead of the March Fed meeting? [23:48]
• What is Lundy’s “recipe” for creating trading paralysis in the bond market? [27:55]

Resources:

• Fact Sheet on seasonal adjustments in the CPI
• Gazing at r-star: Gauging U.S. monetary policy via the natural rate of interest
• An ugly 20-year bond auction

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