Chris Hipkins was talking tough at the Labour Party’s annual conference in Christchurch yesterday, saying he is determined to make the current Government a one-term government.

And sounding like he reckons he’s the guy to topple them. Saying the party’s internal polling shows it slightly ahead of National and putting him slightly ahead of Christopher Luxon as preferred Prime Minister.

You’ve got to be confident, especially in politics. But, if Hipkins thinks he can be the next Prime Minister, then he’s dreaming.

I reckon there is only one person capable of winning the election for Labour. Which I'll get to.

But you might have heard Hipkins talking on Newstalk ZB this morning. Banging-on about the current government.

And this is where, in my opinion, Hipkins is getting it all completely wrong and it's why I think he’s deluded if he thinks he can lead Labour to victory.

He goes on all the time about people wanting change at the last election. But he only pays lip service to the idea of the Labour Party, itself, changing. Let alone he himself changing his tune in any way.

And he won’t be the next Prime Minister, especially if he keeps this up, without saying anything about how he’s going to change. And he won't be the next Prime Minister if he doesn't show more humility about where things went wrong when he was in government.

Yes, the leader of the Opposition needs to criticise and point out cock ups and all of that.

But an Opposition leader who got a thrashing at the last election and who is despised by so many people because of the whole COVID thing, then that someone who has their work cut out for them.

And, a year down the track since losing the election last year, Chris Hipkins is showing no signs of changing and no signs of taking any personal responsibility for what happened.

Which is why I’m convinced that Labour can forget about making the current government a one-term government and can forget about winning an election in two years time if it keeps Hipkins in the top job.

Which brings me to the only person I think has any hope in hell of turning things around for the party.

It’s the Labour MP who, whenever he turns up on the Mike Hosking Breakfast filling in for Ginny Andersen, you get National voters texting in saying they want him on their side.

No prizes for guessing who it is I’m talking about. It’s Kieran McAnulty. He is everything Christopher Luxon isn’t. He’s also the type of person that commentators around the world say all left-leaning parties need to align themselves closer to if they want to win elections.

He’s not a chardonnay or a champagne socialist. The way he talks, he sounds like your average Joe in the street.

He’s taken on the job of campaign manager for Labour at the next election. But they’ve given him the wrong job, as far as I’m concerned.

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Do you think the last government spoiled things for everyone? There’s a question!

Let me clarify that a little bit. Do you think the last government spoiled things for every politician from here on in, with the way it handled the COVID-19 pandemic?

Because if we believe the COVID report which came out yesterday, then Jacinda Ardern, Grant Robertson, Chris Hipkins etc ruined the party for every other politician - current and future - because of the damage they did when it comes to the public's trust.

It says, if a similar pandemic happened now, the public would have less trust in the Government and there would be less willingness to comply with the rules. And I have no doubt that would be the case.

I think that trust in the government will never be restored to what it might have been before COVID-19. And there are two reasons why I think that. One is connected to how Labour ran things. The other isn’t.

So, yesterday, we knew the report on the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into New Zealand’s COVID response was being delivered to the Government. What we didn’t know was when it was going to be released to the public.

All the talk ahead of yesterday had been that it was going to be next year before it saw the light of day. But the Government probably assumed that trust was going to feature in the report big time and knew that, if it was going to have a chance of restoring that trust, then sitting on this report for months wasn’t the way to go.

Not that I think that it will do much good on that front. Because there are two reasons why I don’t see trust in government ever getting back to what it used to be.

Let’s start with the one that isn’t related to Labour’s handling of the pandemic. And this is to do with the global political shift we’ve seen in the last few years, where people have said they’ve just had enough of governments telling them how to live their lives. Because they just don’t trust governments and politicians.

The other reason why I think that public trust in the government will never be what it used to be here in New Zealand, is specific to the way Labour handled the pandemic response.

I think most people would agree that, in the early days at least, they trusted Jacinda Ardern’s government to do the right thing in the face of what was significant global uncertainty.

But like most crises, COVID went on and on and on. We had all the different strains of the virus. We had different countries doing things differently. We had people losing patience with all the lockdowns and mask wearing and COVID cards.

So we had all that volatility. But the Labour Government just stuck to the plan it started with in the first place. Delivered with a "we know best” attitude. Which is why people stopped trusting them. And I don’t see public trust in our politicians ever being fully restored.

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Today on Politics Friday, John MacDonald was joined by National’s Matt Doocey and Labour’s Tracey McLellan to wrap this week’s political stories.

They discussed Phase 1 of the Covid Inquiry and Kiwis’ shaken trust in the government, whether Labour will commit to a capital gains tax as they head into their party conference this weekend, and Matt Doocey touched on the recently revealed texts he received from Mike King.

The Mental Health Minister says he didn't reply to the texts after King’s controversial comments around alcohol because he didn't want to.

The I Am Hope founder told Newstalk ZB last month that alcohol is the solution for mental health issues, until a better solution is found.

Minister Matt Doocey was among those to publicly reject the claim.

King, who receives $24 million in government funding for his mental health charity, sent Doocey a 500 word text attempting to justify his claim.

Doocey told John MacDonald he scanned the message, but doesn't reply to every text he gets, and had already stated his position.

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‘If you think I’m a Jacinda Ardern puppet, you’re going to get a huge surprise’.

Who’s saying that, do you think?

It’s Professor Tony Blakely – the epidemiologist and public health expert who has chaired the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into New Zealand’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

And I’m feeling the same way he’s feeling about the COVID vaccination mandates. I don’t know if you can call it “buyer’s remorse” but, like Tony Blakely, I would feel very differently about forcing people to get vaccinated next time around.

So his report on the first phase of the inquiry is being handed over to the Government today, which means his work is done and a new person is taking over to run Phase Two.

You’ll remember there was a bit of political furore over Blakely running the inquiry when he was among the cast of thousands of health experts who were in the news day-after-day during the pandemic.

But it seems any concerns about him not being independent enough to do a proper or thorough investigation —without fear or favour— it seems they might not have been justified. That’s going by what he’s been saying in the last 24 hours.

We won’t know for sure how critical his report is until the Government releases it. At this stage, that’s not going to happen until at least next year. The reason the Government’s giving for that is that it wants Phase Two of the Inquiry to be well under way before we get to see this report.

Professor Blakely says his view on vaccine mandates has evolved.

He thinks we went over-the-top with the vaccine mandates. And that’s where I’m at too. And yes, I was one of those people who talked about ‘no jab, no job’, I’ll admit that.

But that was me then, and this is me now. Because, for me, I’d never experienced a pandemic before. Or more to the point, I’d never experienced such an intense public vaccination programme before.

Whether I can be accused of drinking the Kool Aid, I’m not sure. I don’t know, but what I do know is that if there’s ever something like this again, you won’t hear me banging the drum in favour of vaccine mandates.

If you think that makes me a hypocrite, you’re welcome to think that. But, as Tony Blakely seems to have done as well, my thinking has shifted. That’s something he reckons the people in charge of our COVID should have done a bit more of at the time, as well.

Now you might say that hindsight is a great thing, and I'd agree with you. But it doesn't mean you can’t change your mind, which is why I now think forcing people to get vaccinated was a big mistake.

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If there’s one city council facility in Christchurch that never seems to have a bad word said about it, it’s the He Puna Taimoana hot pools at New Brighton.

I would actually say that the pools are one of Christchurch’s great post-earthquake success stories.

What’s more, they don’t run at a loss. How often can you say that about anything run by a local council?

Tell that to city councillor Aaron Keown, though. Because he’s come up with this idea of selling the hot pools to try and get some cash in the door, so the council can avoid increasing rates by about nine percent next year.

I’m telling you now. It would be the wrong thing to do. And I don't think it matters whether you’ve been there or not to know how daft an idea this is. Because those pools have become one of Christchurch’s absolute gems.

I haven’t actually been there for a dip myself. But I know plenty of people who have - and they all rave about it.

In fact, I was talking to someone this morning who went there for the first time just a few weeks ago. He described it as “exceptional”.

And if you’re hearing this and thinking ‘oh must give it a go’. Today is your lucky day. Because I checked the online booking system earlier and there are spaces available right now.

It’s your lucky day because, sometimes, the hot pools can be booked out for days - if not weeks - in advance. That’s how popular they are.

That was one of the many things that this person I was talking to today loved about going there recently. It wasn’t crowded. It was very well controlled. That’s a booking system for you.

So why is Aaron Keown even entertaining the idea of selling off the pools? It’s because the council is really struggling to find ways of avoiding that nine percent rates increase next year.

It’s not the only idea that’s being thrown around the council table. But it’s the only one that I’m dead against. Councillor Sara Templeton, for example, has suggested they could sell-off the Lichfield Street carpark.

They can do what they want with that, as far as I’m concerned. But leave the hot pools out of this conversation.

Because not only is it a success story now. It’s been a success story since it opened four-and-a-half years ago.

It was late May 2020 and the council was predicting that it wouldn’t make any money in its first year. It was executing the pools to run at an $886,000 loss.

But it went nuts. And, instead of losing money, it made money. In its first year it turned a profit of $109,000. How many council facilities do that? Not just in Christchurch, but anywhere.

They’d hoped to get 75,000 people through the gates. But they had about 120,000 visitors instead. And in March this year, the 500,000th visitor went through the door.

At the time, the manager of the pools - Merryn Skipper - said the pools had had a massive positive impact on the local community.

She said, since the pools opened, Eftpos spending in the New Brighton area has increased on average by 200,000 transactions a month. Which, all up, equate to about 9.4 million extra Eftpos transactions in the area since May 2020.

It’s a gold mine! So where is councillor Aaron Keown coming from with this idea of his?

He reckons Ngāi Tahu Tourism would be right up for buying the pools. He says: “With another operator it might be better for the area. Especially if we throw them a consent to build a nice big hotel across the road.”

Where I think that idea falls over, is the fact that 85 percent of the people who go there are locals.

Either way, if the council wants to avoid that nine percent rates increase, it needs to come up with other ideas. Flogging-off the hot pools shouldn't be one of them.

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I reckon former Labour Party leader David Cunliffe might have just done the best sell job on a capital gains tax that any politician in New Zealand —or anyone for that matter— has ever managed to do.

It might have something to do with the fact that taxes —of any sort— get people rather fired up, and a lot of people are anti-capital gains tax. In my experience, even people who say they’re on the left side politically hate the idea of paying more tax than they are already.

But I’ll tell you what, I reckon they’ll be feeling differently after comments from David Cunliffe.

He was talking on Newstalk ZB this morning ahead of the Labour Party's annual conference this weekend where one of the big things on the agenda is a vote on whether the party will go further with the development of a capital gains tax policy and potentially a wealth tax policy.

And he painted a picture of a capital gains tax scenario that I think would be far more palatable to most people than how capital gains has been discussed before. Which is allowing to offset a capital gains tax against other income taxes.

“I think it’s very possible to, over time, use it to offset income tax. So you know, your teachers, doctors, your farmers can take less growth of or a cut in income tax in exchange for realised capital gains —usually excluding the family home— being brought in at some sort of rate. Just broadens the tax base, and we can give offsets elsewhere.”

Now that in my opinion would do far more favours for most wage and salary owners than some of the tax changes the current Government has introduced.

Of course, whenever you start talking about tax, reality is more complex than the theory. And even I’m starting to wonder how this scenario David Cunliffe talked about this morning would practically work.

But, theoretically, I think people would be less against a capital gains tax if they knew they could offset it against their wage or salary.

The argument for a capital gains tax has always been that it is unfair that we treat different types of income differently. So it's a no-brainer that we do something about it.

David Cunliffe reckons most voters feel the same. What about you?

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Anyone who thinks we can still stick to that pipedream of sport and politics not mixing probably got a hernia or had kittens yesterday morning before and after the All Blacks match against Italy.

The game itself wasn’t too flash. I think the general consensus is that it was lacklustre. Or the All Blacks were, anyway.

So people not too excited about the actual game. A different story, though, with the players taking the opportunity to show their backing for last week’s treaty principles hīkoi during the pre-match haka.

And then, after the match, there were players waving the tino rangatiratanga Māori Sovereignty flag on the field.

I’ve got no problem at all with what happened during the haka. But I’m not a hundred percent sure how I feel about the flag stuff. Reason being, that the All Blacks are a national team and using a different flag - other than the official flag - just doesn’t sit right with me.

It’s not that I’m anti-tino rangatiratanga flag. I just don’t think it was appropriate for the All Blacks to use. But, as far as using the haka to make a political point, I’m all good with that.

Translating what TJ Perenera said leading the haka, he said: “The sovereignty of the land remains, the sovereignty of the people remains, the Treaty of Waitangi remains".

TJ’s explanation is that it was about expressing unity. And that’s how coach Scott Robertson described it too when he was asked about it after the game.

Razor said it was discussed beforehand and the unity thing was what it was all about. But there are two ways you can define unity. One definition - in terms of what happened yesterday during the haka - is this idea that the Treaty of Waitangi actually unites us all.

The other definition of unity, is that this could be seen as the All Blacks standing in unity with the 42,000 people who were in the hikoi that turned-up at Parliament last week.

Either way, I think the days of trying to keep politics out of sport are over.

I’m good with TJ and the All Blacks doing what they did. Just like I was good with the Hurricanes women's team earlier this year having a go at the Government during their haka.

And here’s why:

For me, we’re dreaming if we think we can cherry pick from Māori culture. We seem to be perfectly happy for the haka to be part of the All Blacks machine but some of us want our inclusion of Māori culture to stop right there.

As long as we can use that Māori culture to entertain the crowds, that’s fine. But, for some, it’s a different story if the people whose culture we are happy to milk are getting a bit toey about things.

What I’m getting at, is that we can’t just pick and choose which bits of Māori culture we want to put on show and which bits we don’t.

We can’t just have the show and no tell. And what TJ Perenara and the All Blacks delivered yesterday in Italy was the show and the tell. They showed our Māori culture to the world - as they always have - but they also told the world that it’s not just about the razzamatazz.

They told the world that there’s some stuff going on back home that people aren’t happy about. Particularly the people back home whose culture is on show every time the All Blacks take to the field.

And what’s wrong with that? Absolutely nothing, as far as I’m concerned.

If we have a problem with what happened yesterday, then the All Blacks may as well ditch the haka altogether.

Because I think it is hugely disrespectful if we think Māori culture is only good for entertaining the crowds. Or selling a product. We might have got away with it in the past. But we’re fools if we think we can get away with it now.

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I don’t know if I’m going to make any friends in Governors Bay, especially with the people involved with the Governors Bay Jetty Restoration Trust.

Because I think their call that the city council stop charging them interest on a loan it gave them to get the project across the line is, at best, unrealistic. They are dreaming.

I remember the first time I went to the rebuilt jetty after it was re-opened last year. It was a beautiful evening. Very still. One of those brilliant evenings on the peninsula. And I was really impressed.

I’d been to the old jetty plenty of times —that was before it was damaged in the earthquakes— but the new jetty was quite something. Still is quite something.

If you’ve been there, you’ve probably walked up-and-down reading the plaques with the names of all the people and the outfits that gave money to the project. Who only gave money because of those volunteers who decided that the community was going to get its jetty back and who did an absolutely brilliant job making it happen.

Especially when you consider that the city council originally thought it would cost $7.8 million, and these volunteers managed to get it done for $3.8 million. So around about half as much as the council was talking about.

They did it after the council decided that, because it was going to cost so much, it wasn’t worth doing.

Not that it wiped its hands completely, it sold the jetty to the trust for $1 and chipped-in $1.75 million of ratepayer money. It also gave the trust an $850,000 loan at 4% for four-and-a-half years.

So the jetty is back. Everyone happy.

Well, not quite. Because after all the heart and soul these volunteers put into raising the money to get it re-built, they’ve run out of puff.

They’ve worked out that, just to pay the interest on the loan from the city council, they’d have to have the equivalent of a fundraising sausage sizzle every weekend for the next three years. That’s just to pay the interest.

So this week they’ve been to the council, asking it to drop the interest on the loan. The council has said “no can do”. And I’m with the council.

For the exact same reason that the council has given to the jetty people – that, if it agreed to flag the interest on their loan, it would set a dangerous precedent.

Not that the city council is unanimous on this one – Councillor Aaron Keown reckons the council should drop the interest on the loan. He thinks that, instead of setting a dangerous or a problematic precedent, it would actually encourage more community groups to take on these types of projects.

His view is that if you look at the jetty project, the volunteers managed to get the rebuild done for half the amount the council thought it was going to cost. And he’s saying today that “if it delivers infrastructure at half the price, it is good precedent setting.”

Which Aaron, with respect, is a pretty weak argument.

It’s a weak argument because if the council gives on this one, not only will it have other outfits that it’s leant money to knocking on the door wanting their interest waived, it will also have others applying for council loans with 0% interest from the get-go.

There will be a stampede of people wanting free money from the council, and it will be pretty hard for the council to say no if it gives-in and flags the interest on the loan for the Governors Bay jetty.

I mean I get what this volunteer group is saying – that after 10 years working on this project, they’re worn out. But they knew when they took out the loan with the council, what the conditions were.

They knew the terms. It’s not like you or I can go to the bank asking them to stop charging us interest on our mortgage because we’re a bit tired, because it means we have to work more than we really want to.

The bank would tell us where to go. Which is what the council is doing too, as it should, to the jetty restoration people.

Yes, the jetty is an asset for the community. Yes, the fact that it’s been re-built much cheaper than what the council thought it would cost is brilliant. Yes, it is another fantastic example of a community recovering from the earthquakes. It ticks all of those boxes.

But it still doesn’t change my view that the jetty restoration people need to accept the conditions they signed-up to when they took the loan out with the council. And the council is absolutely doing the right thing refusing to stop charging them interest.

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