EPISODE 32: FINANCIAL INDICATORS The rate at which the U.S. dollar is exchanged for a unit of currency of a bundle of foreign countries. The price of the household basket of goods and services of a group of countries relative to that of the U.S., expressed in the same currency. The price received from the output produced in a group of countries relative to that of the U.S., expressed in the same currency. Consumer attitude, buying intentions, vacation plans and consumer expectation for inflation, stock prices and interest rates.

Topics NER (Nominal Exchange Rates) - World/US slightly up Real CPI Exchange Rates - World/US down Real PPI Exchange Rates - World/US slightly down Real CCI (Consumer Confidence Index) Expectancy - World/US slightly up

EPISODE 31: TRADE INDICATORS The U.S. dollar value of goods sold to the rest of the world, deflated by the U.S. CPI. The U.S. dollar value of goods bought from the rest of the world, deflated by the U.S. CPI.

Topics US Exports - World/US down US Imports - World/US down

EPISODE 30: PRICE INDICATORS Changes in the price level of a basket of goods and services purchased by households. Changes in the price level of a basket of goods and services purchased by households, excluding food and energy. Changes in the level of prices received by domestic producers for their goods and services.

Topics CPI (Consumer Price Index) - World/US up Core CPI Inflation - World/US up PPI (Producer Price Index) - World/US up

EPISODE 29: REAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY The value of all final goods and services produced, adjusted by inflation, and the output production in the industrial sector.

Topics GDP (Gross Domestic Production) - World up, US down IP (Industrial Production) - World/US down

EPISODE 28: YOUR MOVE AS OWNER - PART 2 Instead of just retracting and getting conservation, an excellent move by the way, we are also getting aggressive. All of these costs savings have 2 purposes - reduce our cost of operation (fixed) and cost of production (variable) to remove fragility AND pass on the cost savings to the customer with lower prices.

Topics Variable Costs - Materials, Labor, Defects, Time, Cost Saving Initiatives

EPISODE 27: YOUR MOVE AS OWNER - PART 1 For the businesses that didn't heed the warning signs of a contracting market, the true depth of this contraction is becoming obvious. Usually they focus inward about what should have done and wasn’t. New sales are shrinking and existing customers are cutting back. The financial situation is becoming critical – outflow exceeds inflow drawing upon savings and pushing credit limits.

Topics Fixed Costs - Inventory, Accounts Payable, Cost Saving Initiatives

EPISODE 26: REVOLUSION At The Top – True Value < Market Price Supply Exceeds Demand with Excess Inventories and Inflated Price - The Bubble is Bursting The smart have minimized their exposure and have started conserving cash. They are cleaning up their credit accounts with investors, creditors, and suppliers. Everybody else is reacting to what was obvious but they have no plans for surviving the upcoming winter. While they are wondering what to do next, the smart are ensuring seed for the next season is saved because the contraction will end and those ready to act early will benefit the most in the next expansion.

Topics What does bursting bubble look like?

EPISODE 25: FRAGILE > ROBUST > ANTIFRAGILE? During the season there were many opportunities to discuss the concept of antifragile but now seems like a sweet spot. The word antifragile doesn't exist and was created by Talib because there was no word to describe gaining/growing from disruption. His insight was there is something beyond robust - the ability to survive. At this stage in the business cycle moving toward antifragile is smart.

Topics Assessing your fragility