• Fed Funds rate lowered from 5.0% to 4.5%, but mortgage went from 6% to 7%.
• Why. Mortgage rates are tied closer 10 year bonds. And with market uncertainty, people buy bonds:
  • Example: $100 bond pays 5%.
  • Demand drives bond to $98; so implied rate is 7%.
• S&P 500: ~33% is Mag 7
• RSP Equal weight.
• Some correction is healthy.

• Firefighters continue attempts to gain control of almost 40,000 acres of ongoing wildfires, which have killed at least 27 people and destroyed more than 12,300 structures. See maps of the fire areas and evacuation zones.
• The Palisades Fire is 31% contained, and the Eaton Fire is 65% contained.
• CA FAIR is insurer of last resort. But they only have $200m in cash and $2.5b in reserves.
• A rule change in CA, requires those providing insurance to cover short-fall, which they will do by subsequently raising insurance for ALL CA residents.
• Already hard to get insurance. State Farm, Allstate = NO.

Govt Regulation and Cost

• From Chamath: A tale of incompetence, grift and corruption…
• Governor Gavin Newsom released his proposed 2024-25 California state budget on January 10, projecting a $38 billion shortfall
• Based on the available data, in 2021, the top 1% of earners in California contributed approximately 49.9% of the state's personal income tax revenue.
• Janisse Quiñones, who makes $750k a year,.
• Here’s a public list of all salaries.

Other Regulation

• Marc Andreessen on China's manufacturing dominance
• Marc Andreessen says America is primed for a new golden age. "We have the people, we have the resources. We have geographic security. We have all of these capabilities."We continue to be the beacon of capitalism and enterprise and entrepreneurship.
• Here’s another one from Alex Karp

• $1.5t, $655 and up 67% YoY.
• Zuck on Rogan
• TikTok set to go dark on Sunday

• Starships 7th flight test. The landing burn slowed Super Heavy down and maneuvered itself to the launch and catch tower arms, resulting in the second successful catch of a Super Heavy booster.
• Blue Origin: New Glenn made it, but didn’t successfully land the booster.

Success stories pretty reliably happen for people who combine: solid talent, savvy business sense, 15-20 years of persistent hard work.

Goals: Health, Family and Wealth.

Bryson Deshambeu: 7 hours for hole in 1. $100k.

9000 homes and counting.

Video of homes destroyed.

The California FAIR Plan (Fair Access to Insurance Requirements Plan)

Big pull back. WSJ Jobs report good, so interest rate cut less likely.

@unusual_whales Here are the top political traders of 2024.

• Markets up 25%.
• 25 congress people beat the markets. 6 people at or over 100%.

• Dana White joins the Board of Directors.
• Freezing 3rd party fact checking.
  • Play Mark Zuckerberg video about why?
• Eagerness to work with Trump.
• Also on board:
  • CEO of Broadcom. Up 100% in last year. $1t company. #10 or so.
  • Marc Andreeson

• WSJ - Uber and Lyft Gear Up For the Revolution in Driverless Taxis
• Travis Kalinick said “Elon has it covered”
• Tesla videos of self-parking.
• Jim Farley - CEO Ford - On 150 different softwares “confederation of software providers” Play Video

This is the year the markets wake up and realize Tesla is the leader in Autonomous, and Real-world AI.

https://x.com/herbertong/status/1876677493270479271

Source Elon’s interview at CES.

• Thinks humanoid robot will be biggest industry of all time! 3-4 robots/ person.
• Time to first Robot: Play at 10:20. Optimus robot is most advanced robot ever.
  • 1000’s this year. Several 1000.
  • 10x next year. 50-100k robots in 2026.
  • 10x again, so 500k robots in 2027+.
    • 30k robots * 30k price tag = 900,000,000 (900m). $1b.
    • Summary = $1b in 2027. Runrate.

New Model Y is out.

NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang

• Most interesting “The ChatGPT moment for robotics is coming. Like large language models, world foundation models are fundamental to advancing robot and AV development.

NVIDIA’s decision to invest in xAI ‘s recent $6B round speaks volumes.

Netflix: Squid Game.

Landman

Mel Gibson on Rogan

• 72 million people. 17 million in Bangkok.
• Staying at 4-5 star hotel. $125/ night.
• Golf Courses. Price. Bangkok.
• Entire trip was ~$6500, excluding airfare and dinners.
• Fairly inexpensive, once you are here.

• S&P 500 up 28.5% Year-to-date.
  • Including dividends, the S&P 500 is now up over 29% this year. That sounds abnormally high, but is actually more common than you might think. The S&P 500 has finished with a total return above 25% in 26 out of 96 years since 1928. That's 27% of the time
  • 9.8% return on average since 1928.

$430 high this week. Previously $410 in Nov 2021.

$1.34 trillion market cap. Should easily reach $2-3 trillion in next few years with Robotaxi.

• V13 FSD is off the charts. Numerous reports on this.
  • FSD v13 is better everywhere. There are no regressions that they've identified. It's become obvious that it will be unsupervised soon.
• One of the unique things about Tesla solving self-driving with AI is how novel it is. Everyone else uses $100k+ worth of sensors, cameras, and HD maps to solve for self-driving.
• Optimus is an entire level of vertical growth if it takes off.
  • Video of optimus walking up and down mulch/leafy hill. ‘

Lawfare!

• Delaware activist judge Kathaleen McCormick declines to reinstate Elon Musk's Tesla compensation package, once again overruling the company’s board and more than 72% of its shareholders.

• On X, said Elon and Palantir will work together.
• Alex Karp is phenomenally smart and says what he thinks in public. (See Elon Musk)
• Palantir CEO Alex Karp on the AI landscape: “America is in the very beginning of a revolution that we own, the AI revolution. We own it. It should be called the US AI revolution. Every single relevant company in the world is in this country. The second tier of those

DOGE

• 1 million examples to report, but here is 1: A 2023 Government Accountability Office report found that 17 agencies had less than a quarter utilization of their headquarters buildings early that year.
• Bernie Sanders: “Elon Musk is right”

• New all time highs! $936 this week.
• Netflix option program for employees. Great value.
• I’m watching:
  • Your Honor. Bryan Cranston's Breaking Bad follow-up
  • A man in Full. Jeff Daniels Atlanta real estate tycoon.
  • Thicha: Thai girl taking revenge!! Merched because I’m in Thailand?
  • Tokyo Swindlers.

• Enjoy time and family. Nobody says: should have worked more.

Blue Origin deleted a video of the mission after Emily Calandrelli, the 100th woman in space, shared how online trolls ruined her milestone with misogynistic comments that reduced her to tears.

• She is a star!
• Point here is embrace people making fun of you. You take away their power.
• But never be embarrassed. Own it! Make a joke and nobody can make fun of you!

First the Kamala message? Don’t let anyone take your power!

Golf:

• Bryson made the hole in 1. Day 16. #14 134th attempt.
• Break 50 with Tom Brady. 5 eagles and 13 birdies.

Booming: S&P 500 up 27% YTD
Bitcoin: $96,000

• How can this be “partisan”.
• It’s our money!
  • NIH spent $1.9b to study racism in 2024
• JPMorgan raised estimate of Argentina Growth to 8.5% next year.
• WSJ DOGE from Elon and Vivek:

B2G:

• DOGE Cast
• Failed Audits.

SpaceX & NASA

NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) rocket, which costs over $2 billion per launch, could reportedly be cancelled entirely.

SpaceX has made rapid progress with Starship in the last 1.5 years, which aims to ultimately cost under $10M per launch, or 99.5% less than NASA’s SLS

Per Bloomberg: $100b Artemis program.

SLS a National disgrace: Space Launch System

• Four years on, the program has consumed another $20b with nothing to show for it. $20b, bringing total development cost to over $100b. This program burns $12m per day!
• A single engine of the SLS rocket ($146M) is more expensive than a Starship Full stack ($100M, when expended). An engine that was already built and that flew several times with the Space Shuttle.

Per Brad on B2G 2024 was Chat GPT moment. 2025 will be Autonomous driving.

• Moved investment from uber to

Optimus is catching tennis balls. This real!!

• Perhaps most important podcast of the year.
• Most Federal Workers are at home. 1 day per month.
• Debanking. PEP: politically exposed persons. 450 agencies. Independent federal agencies.
• AI Meetings with previous administration.
• We will soon assume all info is AI generated, unless we have Blockchain Crypto key.

• Needs to be celebrated an honored. President Trump in attendance.
• Starship 6 launch!
  • 120 meters tall.
  • Each Raptor rocket engine produces twice as much thrust as all 4 engines on a 747. 33 Raptors = 66 747’s
• Pointy Rockets

Elon on call with Sundar

• Ron Baron on Cost Plus contracts.

• How is Kamala in debt? Beyonce 10m? Oprah $1m for an interview?
• https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1855432554666664043
• Trump spent $345.42 Million
• $10.4 Million was spent on Staff
• Kamala Spent $1.37 Billion
• Kamala Spent $582.53 Million on Staff

Marc and Ben on Policy Recap at 2:00 min It was the worst four years in our career in terms of White House policy as it related to technology and and business more broadly.

Vivek and Elon to to lead DOGE (Dept of Govt efficiency)

Milton Friedman on getting rid of federal agencies.

Elon explains why important. “There are around 428 federal agencies. There's so many that people have never even heard of.

From Vivek: Here’s a key point about our mission at DOGE.

From Elon: All actions of the Department of Government Efficiency will be posted online for maximum transparency.We will also have a leaderboard for most insanely dumb

Javier Milei: Afuera 🤣

• New highs over $92k.

• Netflix and Tesla

• $878…. All-time highs
• Jake Paul/ Tyson fight
• The event was #1 in 78 countries.
• Streaming issues and outage.
• Squid Game. Dec 26 Most viewed non-english show ever.
• 2 Christmas day NFL games. Sold out all advertising.

• $346 yesterday. $1.1T market Cap.
• Trump's transition team have told advisers they plan to make a federal framework for fully self-driving vehicles one of the Transportation Department's priorities.
• Ron Baron on Tesla: Play at 3:23. Tesla $3-5 trillion in 10 years.
• Robots in China!! Xpeng.

• Chamath PalihapitiyaParents: Help pick your kids’ college wisely.

Recommendations

• Penguin
• Joe and Theo!
• Lex and Javier Milei - Argentinian President

Biden is laughing his ass off right now!!

• Here’s a funny thread of conspiracy: Peppy walk & talk. Jill wearing all RED!!

Markets are booming ridiculously:

• S&P 500 hits record high today at 6000.
• FATMANN:
• Bitcoin at $76,000.
• This does feel “frothy”

Fed Cut rates again.

• Federal-funds rate to a range between 4.5% and 4.75%. All 12 Fed voters backed the cut.
• Bad for money markets good for economic growth.

• $798. Call it $800. All time high on
• Mkt cap about $340 billion.
• Tyson vs Jake Paul. 3-part documentary. Fight on Nov 15. Next Friday at 5:00pm.

• Palantir: Up 40% in the week.
• Nvidia: All time high at $148. $3.6 trillion. Largest company in world.

• Stock at $326. $1 trillion market cap. Up 30% this week.
  • $410 is high. So still 30% upside.
• Musk bet the farm. Could have been deported. Govt is/was after him.
• Lawsuits done.
  • DOJ suing SpaceX for not hiring asylum seekers!
• ‘Gene Munster on Tesla and Robotaxi
  • Autonomy IS HAPPENING! Now less govt regulation.
• Robots: Xping in China showing of Robots. Why is this good?! Robot videos.
  • Robots ARE HAPPENING!

• Biden seems skippy!
• Key difference now is long form podcasts! I (and others) really got to know Donald, JD, Tulsi, RFK. I didn’t hear an interview with ANYONE on Kamala’s team.
• Andrew Yang said HUGE mistake not going on Joe Rogan.
• BTW, don’t forget Rogan endorsed Bernie! He got screwed. So did Tulsi and RFK, because they refused to be puppets.

Dems: Time to return to “normal”

• Maybe have a primary next time!
• Immigration: Bill Clinton in 1995 on immigration.
• Forever foreign wars and industrial military complex.
• Over regulation 450 govt agencies! and over-spending!
• Inflation is messy, but was clearly on people’s minds
• Defunding Police!? People want clean safe neighborhoods.

Final Point: Good reset opportunity. We’ll be fine.

Wait One more thing:

• Epstein list!!! These guys are fucked! More than 150 names may be made public as part of a settled civil lawsuit against British socialite Ghislaine Maxwell — who was found guilty of conspiring with Epstein to sexually abuse underage girls for at least a decade — Maxwell "the mastermind" behind Epstein's sex trafficking ring.
• Diddy videos! Probably funny.

University of Oregon: Leonard Serrato. Here what he has to say!

• Get outside!
• Save and invest your money.

• I make mistakes on my podcasts. Please feel free to comment and fact-check me. It's hard. I try to go hard and not pause.
• Oregon plays Michigan today. Ducks favored by 14.5
• Redmond:
  • Parents.
  • Cold.
  • Food carts and BEER!!! Need that in San Jose! Huge business opportunity!
• Single digit golf stats:

• Overall strong earnings, but seeing some pullback.
• Can’t bet against these big guys.

Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio:

• 2.0 almost at all time high. Last time at 2 was Nov 2021.

CAPE Ratio: 35

• 38 in Nov 2021.
• 44 in Dec 1999.

Ford Earnings

• Ford to idle production of F150 Lightning.
  • Ford has sold a mere 22,807 Lightnings so far this year
  • Ford’s EV division has lost $3.7 billion during the first three quarters of this year—about $55,000 per EV—and expects $5 billion to $5.5 billion in losses this year.
  • Tesla Net Income $2.2 billion.

Meta: These numbers are insane!

• Revenue up $6b or 19%. $41b vs $34b
• Net income up $4b (35%). . $16 vs $12.

Google /Alphabet Earnings

• Revenues up 15% to $88.3 billion.
• Net income increased 34%

Microsoft

• Revenue was $65.6 billion and increased 16%

xAI plans to bring online an additional 100,000 Nvidia GPUs at its Memphis.

• Trump on Rogan
• JD Vance on Rogan
  • Tulsi and RFK have also been on Rogan. And Elon.
• Kamala on Call her Daddy
• Hillary Clinton in 2008:“If they’ve committed a crime… DEPORT THEM! No questions asked.
• PolyMarket:
• Jeff Bezos on Washington Post - TRUST
• Regulations: From Chamath:
• Remember the Whales, Sharks and Seal studies from SpaceX.

• The Penguin on Max.
• Slow Horses on Apple.
• The Lioness on Paramount. Not easy to figure out!! Hours on phone/internet with Xfinity. No humans…impossible.

Purdue 35-0. Ranked #1.

• New record high. $752 today, but reached $772.
• Maybe running ahead of itself a little, but still pure streaming play with no end of growth in site.
• Q4: Tyson, Football, Squid…

Tesla up almost 22% today. At $260. High was 410.

Sandy Munroe set me straight!

• Investor Deck
• Everyone should simply listen to the Earnings Call.
• Elon said 20-30% growth next year.
• Full autonomy approved and ride-hailing in CA and TX in 2025.
• Safer than humans by Q2 2025
• Full scale production of CyberCab by 2026. No steering wheel and no pedals. Big screen for movies and comfortable.
• Cybertruck became the third best-selling EV in Q3 in the U.S. (behind only Model Y and Model 3)
• Increased AI training compute by over 75% in Q3
• Over two billion miles driven cumulatively on FSD (Supervised)4 as of Q3 with more than 50% on V12
• Two key points coming here:
  • Ability to learn. 10k miles per intervention.
  • Optimus!!!
    • Dexterity movement. 22 degrees of freedom. Human = 27. Doorknobs.
    • Think about the AI real-world functionality.
    • Most advanced humanoid robot by a long-shot!
    • Only company that can scale manufacturing.
    • Optimus will be most valuable part of company.
• The Services and Other business achieved a record gross profit in Q3, growing over 90% year-on-year.

Financials:

• A lot of talk about the “machines” that build the machines. Most advanced factories in the world!
• Energy revenue up 52% YoY and Services up 29% YoY.
• Gross profit up 20%, with revenue up 8%

Uber Demand aggregator?

Self-driving cars:

WSJ on Waymo and San Francisco, LA, Phoenix and Austin.

• Waymo is on a marketing blitz that includes social-media ads promoting the privacy of its cars for date night
• Also going to partner thru Uber app.
• Competition is good and will keep regulators in check.
  • Google Waymo.
  • Amazon: Zoox.
  • GM: Cruise

Googles Waymo Now Obviously the Leader in Self-Driving Cars 🤣

Lot’s talk tech:

Waymo uses a combination of sensors and software to enable autonomous driving.

Government Over-reach

• This story of strangulation by over-regulation from @elonmusk about the government requiring @SpaceX to assess whether their rockets could potentially hit SHARKS and WHALES is side-splittingly hilarious.
• Seals
• DOGE Dept of Government Efficiency
• CCDH…Speaking X Twitter: Leaked documents from the Center for Countering Digital Hate reveal their primary goal is to "Kill Musk's Twitter"

CA Electric Bills!

Recommendations:

• Rogan and Jelly Roll
• Trump Going on Rogan Podcast Tomorrow