Superforecasting
The Art and Science of Prediction
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Superforecasting
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Narrated by:
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Joel Richards
About this listen
From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying reference material will be available in your My Library section along with the audio.
©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.Listeners also enjoyed...
What listeners say about Superforecasting
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance2 out of 5 stars
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Story5 out of 5 stars
- Corey Johnson
- 23-03-19
Good book, tepid narration
Great book with respect to evidence based forecasting, but the narrator was very robotic. I would have enjoyed some energy in his delivery. I would have been far more engaged. However, his explanation of the graphs which obviously cannot be seen are very well done.
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1 person found this helpful
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- SAN
- 21-07-21
Very well explained - just loved it
Very well explained - just loved it
Guidelines: One can find what one is looking for.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- Derek
- 21-09-16
Should be mandatory reading in every school
Narrator was excellent, perfect reading.
This book is an excellent analysis of the dangers of pride in our forecasts and the benefits of humility coupled with a desire to perform better.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- Mr. Mathew A. R. Niania
- 07-03-16
Thought provoking throughout!
A thoroughly enjoyable listen. The authors very clearly lay out what it means to be a critical thinker. The book focuses on how to use this for prediction but obviously using these life edicts you stand to make much better decisions in pretty much everything. It's certainly not an easy process but definitely worth the effort.
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3 people found this helpful
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance5 out of 5 stars
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- Ed Challinor
- 26-01-19
A must for any small, medium or large business owner (oh and government!)
Marvellously written and beautifully argued book about how to make better decisions. You don’t need to be a math geek to get it and you don’t need to be a politics geek either. Don’t be fooled by preconceptions of what this book is about. It will change the way you think and make you able to solve problems better and maybe cause some real change in your life. It did mine.
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1 person found this helpful
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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Performance4 out of 5 stars
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- MJ
- 19-03-18
Remarkably entertaining and insightful
I have to admit, I wasn't entirely sure why I was listening to this one. I expected to already know much of the thinking from other sources and I wasn't disappointed. There's quite a lot of contemporary references and popular tales from the works of cognitive and complexity science, mathematics and economics. It's the way it's put together that got me. Well reasoned, really well balanced and a few nice Aunt Sallies that made me think "that's a load of rubbish" led by the nose into a bias or two, only to be elegantly lifted free. A must for anyone who has to work shit out for a living. Nourishing food for thought. Who knew, I'm not a bad forecaster, got the pathos and the logos, just need lots of practice even more feedback to get the ethos.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- Jonathan Lloyd
- 07-02-20
There’s a 98.7% chance you will like this book if..
You are interested in statistics and love Superforecasting. A thoroughly enjoyable read and worth the effort.
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- Flavia Richardson
- 10-02-16
book presents a new way of thinking
I enjoyed the audiobook. very easy to grasp the key points on how to reach good judgement. how our approach to forecasting and analysis needs to change to include more aggregation and more variables.
gives insight on the good judgement Project and the outcomes.
few key messages for professionals:
1) consult across sectors
2) aggregate
3) use a base score
4) incrementally improve forecasts and prediction and regularly review works
5) test the validity of data
6) don't fall for pundits :)
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40 people found this helpful
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Overall5 out of 5 stars
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- Amazon Customer
- 14-04-21
Thought-provoking and compelling stuff
An overview of a variety of success factors for a cohort of “superforecasters” - people who were able to effectively predict events in the near-to-medium future.
Often leading with clear examples, then explaining how/why they are relevant, I believed this book could help anyone improve their foresight to some extent, and possibly help make superforecasters of many!
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- Prime Addict
- 20-07-20
Thought provoking
Am going to read Taleb after this. I'm no expert in this field but this is definitely thought provoking and it's made me want to find out more to fully understand the limitations of this approach to forecasting...
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